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Ethereum price challenge: Can it hold above $2,600?

Ethereum has had a good month in September, currently trading at $2,596, but it still faces challenges to stay above the key resistance level of $2,600.

Recent price fluctuations

From September 18 to 23, the price of Ethereum rose by 15.1%. This rise was mainly driven by the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which also hit new highs in the stock market. Whether Ethereum's rise can continue despite the overall positive market situation remains to be seen.

Reasons behind the price increase

Federal Reserve's monetary policy: interest rate cuts mean a looser monetary environment, which has prompted investors to seek safe assets, including Ethereum. Investor sentiment: The strong performance of the S&P 500 combined with the weak manufacturing PMI index has exacerbated concerns about a recession, making crypto assets such as Ethereum a scarce asset choice.

Options market trends

The upcoming September 27 expiration of $2.78 billion in Ethereum options will have a significant impact on the market. Of the current open interest, $1.82 billion is in call options, while $950 million is in put options. If the Ethereum price remains below $2,700 at expiration, the opportunities for bulls will be limited.

Growth in Network Activity

Transaction activity on the Ethereum network is also on the rise, with the number of transactions increasing by 15% in the past seven days. However, with the increase in Ethereum supply, the annualized inflation rate has reached 0.6%, which poses potential pressure for price increases, especially under the influence of competitors SOL and BNB.

Future Outlook

Next, traders generally believe that bulls need to push prices above $2,700 before the option expiration on September 27 to strengthen bullish sentiment. Conversely, if the price remains below $2,600, put options will have an advantage.

Key Scenario Analysis

$2,400 to $2,500: Will be favorable for put options, with a loss of about $225 million. $2,500 to $2,600: Will be favorable for put options, with a loss of about $100 million. $2,600 to $2,700: Balance changes, call option gains of about $70 million. $2,700 to $2,800: Net call option gains of up to $220 million.

In general, Ethereum faces many challenges, and the market will wait and see whether it can break through the $2,600 resistance!🚀💡

$ETH