The correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 has been high, especially during periods of BTC bull runs and increased risk appetite in traditional markets.
However, as the BTC market matures, its high correlation with stocks may weaken and gradually get rid of the label of "speculative asset".
At present, there is not enough evidence to suggest that this decoupling has stabilized.
The market performance after U.S. presidential elections has always attracted much attention. Historical data shows that the S&P 500 Index usually performs strongly in the year after the election, and the stock market rises significantly after almost every election.
Here are some historical data:
2012 Election: In November 2012, the S&P 500 was up 11% year-over-year. A year later, the increase surged to about 32%, showing a strong rebound in the market.
2016 Election: In November 2016, the S&P 500 was up about 7% year over year. A year later, this increase reached approximately 22%, again demonstrating the significant rise in the market.
2020 Election: In November 2020, the S&P 500 was up about 17-18% year-over-year; by the following year, it had risen to about 29%.
This trend is not limited to just a few elections during BTC’s existence.
Looking back at the ten presidential elections over the past four decades, the S&P 500 has almost always risen in the twelve months following the election, with the only exception being 2000, when the dot-com bubble burst, resulting in negative returns.
It is worth noting that whether the GH Party or the MZ Party wins, it will not significantly affect the positive trend of the market.
The stock market's rise was mainly due to the elimination of uncertainty after the election, which in turn boosted investor confidence.
Looking ahead to the 2024 U.S. presidential election, market participants can’t help but speculate on Bitcoin’s potential performance.
If historical patterns continue, we could see a massive surge in BTC prices. For example:
If BTC achieves the same gains as in 2012 within 365 days after the election, the price could surge to $1,000,000 or more.
If the increase is similar to 2016, the BTC price could reach around $500,000.
If the trend of 2020 is repeated, BTBC may rise to $250,000. 👗👉➩BNB0098
It is worth noting that the gains in BTC after each election seem to be decreasing, about 50% of the previous one. Therefore, $125,000 may be a realistic target for November 2025, especially if this prediction is aligned with the middle band of the BTC rainbow price chart.
