Author: Martin Young, CoinTelegraph; Translated by: Baishui, Golden Finance
Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market could be on the verge of a breakout if historical cycle patterns repeat themselves, one analyst says.
Analyst Rekt Capital noted in a Sept. 24 article that in previous market cycles, Bitcoin broke out from its re-accumulation range between 154 and 161 days after the halving.
The current Bitcoin halving event takes place on April 20, 157 days from now, so we are in the breakout time frame, he said, adding: “History shows that this is Bitcoin’s ‘breakout moment’.”
Source: Rekt Capital
In the 2016 halving, BTC broke through the range oscillation accumulation stage 154 days after the halving, while in 2020, it broke through the range oscillation accumulation stage 161 days after the halving that year.
The analyst noted that history doesn’t always repeat itself in a copy-and-paste fashion, but if it does in this cycle:
“Then Bitcoin should break out of its re-accumulation range in the next few days, this week.”
The analyst also compared cyclical returns, noting that September is typically bad for Bitcoin, while the fourth quarter typically sees better returns.
However, he said on September 21, “Who would have thought Bitcoin would post the highest average return in September this cycle?”
BTC has returned about 9% so far this month, surpassing the second-highest level in September 2016, when it returned 6% that month.
Furthermore, Bitcoin has seen positive returns in nine of the past 11 Octobers, with bullish months like October 2017 and October 2021 seeing even bigger gains of 48% and 40%, respectively.
Source: Rekt Capital
Bitcoin has been moving sideways for the past six months but needs to break above the previous high of $73,738 to enter a new price discovery range. It is currently just 14.6% away from that level.
As of writing, BTC prices have fallen 1.7% over the past 24 hours to $62,863, according to CoinGecko. On September 23, BTC prices hit a monthly high of $65,600.
