1. Attention Value-Market Key Points
1. Market conditions
(1) Macro environment:
l U.S. stocks plunge on “Non-Farm Day”
The U.S. non-farm data for August did not fully satisfy both the optimists and pessimists. The unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.2%, which was in line with expectations, extinguishing the recession signal released by the "Sam Rule". However, the 142,000 new jobs in August were lower than the expected 165,000, and the previous value was also significantly revised down, adding to the signs of a slowdown in the labor market. The S&P fell 1.7%, a weekly drop of more than 4%, the Dow fell 1%, a weekly drop of nearly 3%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.6%, a weekly drop of 5.8%, entering a technical consolidation. Nvidia fell nearly 14% for the week, the worst in two years, and NIO rose more than 24% for the week. The two-year/10-year U.S. Treasury yield ended the inversion, and the short-term bond yield once plunged 16 basis points to a two-year low. The U.S. dollar fell first and then rose, gold fell 1%, the yen rose another 1%, and the renminbi hovered at a 16-month high. Digital currencies plummeted, U.S. oil fell nearly 8% for the week, and Brent oil fell nearly 10%.
Expectations of rate cuts rise again
Market funds are rather entangled. First, the pessimistic bet that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September has risen from 40% to 50%, which is 50-50 with the expectation of a 25 basis point cut. Then they began to evaluate the speeches of Fed officials. Fed Governor Waller, a dovish member, said that if appropriate, he would advocate for a pre-emptive interest rate cut and would not rule out supporting a substantial interest rate cut. FOMC permanent voting member, "Fed's third-in-command", and New York Fed President Williams said that it is appropriate to cut interest rates now, but did not comment on whether to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.
Wall Street investment banks such as JPMorgan Chase said that there is still some time before the FOMC policy meeting, and the extent of the interest rate cut is still unclear. Bank of America raised its bet on interest rate cuts, expecting a 25 basis point cut in each of the next five interest rate meetings. Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times in a row by the end of this year, each time by 25 basis points. The market believes that it is still necessary to observe the CPI data next week. The Fed will not cut interest rates sharply in September to confirm recession concerns, and will remain cautious about excessive interest rate cuts that lead to inflation rebound. Therefore, a 25 basis point cut in September is more likely, and the cut in November may be larger.
(2) Web3 field:
l Bitcoin briefly fell below 53,000 USDT in the early morning and then rebounded, while Ethereum fell below 2,200 USDT
According to Foresight News, according to Bitget market data, Bitcoin briefly fell to 52590.35 USDT in the early morning, and now rebounded to nearly 54000 USDT, with a daily decline of 4.05%. Ethereum fell to a minimum of 2168.18 USDT, and now rebounded to above 2200 USDT, with a daily decline of 6.25%.
l OTC Capital: Bitcoin market volatility may continue under potential interest rate cuts
Odaily Planet Daily News: In anticipation of a possible interest rate cut, Brian Dixon, CEO of OTC Capital, said that the volatility of the Bitcoin market may continue. He said that he expects the market to remain volatile, and although institutional investment and ETFs may play a key role in shaping market stability, volatility will continue. (TheBlock)
2. Hot events
Web3 Field:
Asset management company WisdomTree has requested to withdraw its S-1 registration document for the Ethereum Trust filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), while requesting that the fees be credited as "for future use." The registration statement was originally filed on May 27, 2021. In its filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on September 6, the company stated: "The Company confirms that no securities have been and will not be issued or sold pursuant to the registration statement." WisdomTree acknowledged that it would not refund the fees paid to the U.S. SEC for filing the registration statement, but requested that the amount be credited as "for future use."
On September 7, Elon Musk posted a picture with the word "DOGE" on X and pinned it to Twitter, with the caption "Department of Government Efficiency" (D.O.G.E). BlockBeats previously reported that Trump said on Thursday that if he wins the election in November, he will set up a government efficiency committee led by Musk. Musk said on the social platform: "If I have the opportunity, I look forward to serving the United States. No reward, no title, no recognition."
3. Hot topic narrative
Last night, OKX and Binance launched NEIRO contracts one after another, and the price of "capital dog" exploded, with the highest increase of 6 times in two days. In an instant, the two dogs, which had the same market value, now have a market value of 25M and the other has jumped to 150M. What's more interesting is that readers who have read the rhythm evening news in recent days should find that two days before the official announcement of the launch of the NEIRO contract, NEIRO and Neiro have been constantly appearing in the daily token rise and fall list, the former has been rising, and the latter has been falling. Now it seems that many people have already received the news and made arrangements in advance.
Unlike NEIRO, which rose as soon as it opened and reached a market value of 10M in just one hour, Neiro collapsed as soon as it opened and took more than a week to reach 10M. Later, NEIRO's market value rose all the way to 290 million US dollars, but it was soon revealed that 78% of the addresses were used for insider trading, which was the largest insider trading in the meme world, and then it fell all the way.
The "resurrection" of lowercase Nerio came from an accident. When the Neiro token was launched, the initial deployment team transferred 17.1 billion Neiros to Vitalik's address, accounting for 4% of the total. This marketing method is very common in the meme community. In order to increase the attractiveness of tokens, many meme coin project owners or holders will transfer part of the tokens to famous figures in the crypto community or famous caller addresses in the meme community, and then publicize their holdings in the community to attract other traders to buy tokens.
4. Potential Catalyst
The first week of September saw a noticeable drop in trading activity, with many market participants choosing to remain on the sidelines. This is reflected in the 5% drop in the global cryptocurrency market capitalization over the past week. Meanwhile, large investors, known as crypto whales, are taking advantage of the market decline to profit. This week, they have been buying altcoins such as Polygon (POL), Ethereum (ETH), and frog-themed meme wallet Pepe (Pepe).
On September 4, Polygon completed a 1:1 migration of its native token from Matic to POL. Subsequently, the token saw a surge in whale accumulation as the number of wallet addresses holding between 100,000 and 1,000,000 POL surged by more than 90%. Currently, this group of POL holders consists of 33 addresses controlling 5% of the total circulating supply of the altcoin.
2. Attention Value-Hot Projects
1. Social media hot spots
Ethereum is one of the largest public chain networks in the world and the first choice for developers. With the development of 2.0 and Layer 2, it will continue to lead blockchain technology. Justin Drake, a member of the Ethereum Foundation, has made significant contributions to the promotion and technological innovation of 2.0. He pointed out that after the Cancun upgrade, Ethereum performance has improved and L2 network fees have been reduced, which has enhanced its appeal to developers and project parties. He also pointed out that the Ethereum Foundation has recently reduced its holdings of ETH because it has provided tens of millions of dollars in unconditional funding to the community, which is conducive to ecological decentralization in the long run. The foundation currently controls the supply of ETH. At 0.23%, it would be healthy to have that number closer to 0% over the next few decades.
Key projects:
· PAIN
Value DEX is a decentralized system for programmatic trading of cryptocurrencies (ERC-20 tokens) on Ethereum, BNB Chain, BASE, and SOLANA. The protocol is built through a series of persistent, non-upgradeable smart contracts that prioritize censorship resistance, security, and self-custody without the need for trusted intermediaries.
The most noteworthy thing about Value recently is the combination of blockchain history and NFT, capturing digital moments through generative art on Ethereum, which will make transactions more than just transactions, but reflect how we distribute valuable digital artifacts in the digital age. The market believes that it can redefine the value of the digital age, and market sentiment is relatively optimistic.
2. Smart money builds a position
Smart money holdings
Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs
Project Introduction:
1. WOLF (@Wolf0x67 /X)
LANDWOLF is a Matt Furie creation like no other. He's just a cool guy who loves hanging out with friends, eating pizza and playing video games. Watch out for the full moon: that's when Landwolf turns into a party animal, roaming the streets in search of adventure. As Matt continued to draw Landwolf, he realized that this character was something special indeed. He appeared on the first page of the iconic comic series "The Boy's Club" along with other memorable characters Pepe, Andy and Brett.
2. ANDY (@andycoinonerc /X)
ANDY is a meme coin based on the character "Andy" in the Pepe frog animation. It was launched in 2024 and obtained 3,269 coin holding addresses in less than 20 days, with a pool liquidity of up to $1 million. The official website said that ANDY and Pepe are a pair of lazy roommates who combine simple psychedelics, childlike charm, drug-driven hedonism and naughty pranks, and now it's time for Andy to take power.
Smart money flows in
Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs
Project Introduction:
1. JUP (@JupiterExchange /X)
Jupiter is a decentralized exchange and the largest crypto DAO. Jupiter provides a wide range of tools to make trading easier. These include: Swaps, one of the fastest Swap APIs on Solana, just enter the desired currency pair, amount and slippage, and then receive a serialized transaction from the API to perform the swap; Payment API, quickly exchange any token to USDC; DCA, you can convert DCA to any SPL token through Jupiter's DCA program, etc.
2. XNET (@XNET_Mobile /X)
XNET is a decentralized, neutral host mobile network that leverages Wi-Fi Passpoint and 3GPP cellular technologies to provide fast, reliable, and affordable mobile connectivity, using Citizens Broadband Radio Service spectrum, Wi-Fi version 6+, and a community of network operators coordinated using blockchain technology on Solana, dedicated to solving connectivity issues faced by operators and underserved people around the world, ensuring the network provides affordable and fast connectivity solutions.
3. Attention Value-Sector Rotation
1. Hot topics
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
2. Inside the sector
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
