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JP Morgan: Economic downturn will not lead to Bank of England rate cut today
Despite a series of weaker economic data released in the UK last week, JPMorgan Chase believes that the Bank of England still seems unlikely to cut interest rates again at its meeting on Thursday. While the recent slowdown in wage growth lends credence to the Bank of England's assessment that the wage-price cycle is unwinding, overall the labor market remains tight. July GDP data released last week was weaker than expected, but this does not herald a new trend. Other measures of economic activity, such as the PMI, suggest the UK economy remains firmly in expansion mode. Therefore, the Bank of England may prefer to wait until its November meeting to assess whether further easing of monetary policy is necessary. In doing so, it may also factor in any potential impact on the macro outlook from the upcoming UK budget and US election results. In addition, the Bank of England is expected to expand the QT program to 120 billion pounds.
