Analyst: Bitcoin is expected to hit 92,000
According to a report by the currency circle foreign media "Cointelegraph", the price of Bitcoin may be about to usher in a three-month rebound after several months of decline. Some analysts are predicting that Bitcoin prices could top $90,000.
Well-known analyst Titan of Crypto recently pointed out that judging from the weekly trend, Bitcoin has recently returned to a key support level:
“In previous cycles, when price retested the 50-week moving average (MA), it bounced back at least 40%, while the average bounce was 71%. If Bitcoin rebounds 71% from current levels, it could reach around $92,000 .
Source: XTitan of Crypto analyzes Bitcoin trends
On September 14, Bitcoin regained the psychological mark of $60,000, setting a record for its first return since August 30. As of writing today (18th), Bitcoin was quoted at $60,550, temporarily remaining above the mark. .
Will Bitcoin rebound for three months in a row?
"Cointelegraph" also pointed out that Bitcoin's historical trends show that September is usually an underperforming month, with an average return rate of -4.69%. However, after surviving a September downtrend, Bitcoin typically rebounds for three straight months.
According to data from CoinGlass, Bitcoin’s average return was 22.9% in October and 46.8% in November, its second-best month, while December’s average return was 5.4%.
In the third halving year (2020), Bitcoin rose more than 27% in October and more than 42% in November, then continued into March 2021, forming a six-month rally.
Chart source: CoinGlass Bitcoin monthly historical trend
Trader: Is now the last chance to buy the dip?
Cryptocurrency trader Mags believes that Bitcoin’s current pullback trend may be the last buying opportunity before the next round of gains. He wrote on September 15:
"Bitcoin will give people three buying opportunities before entering a parabolic upward trend. The last one is after the halving, which may be the last cheap buying opportunity before the surge."
Source: X Trader Mags analyzes the post-halving cycle of Bitcoin
On-chain analyst Checkmate also noted that Bitcoin is in the exact same position as the previous two bull cycles. He said in a post on September 14:
“Since hitting the lows, Bitcoin is in the exact same position it was in the last two cycles. I prefer the cycle low comparison because it describes the psychological time it takes for investors to recover from a bear market.”
Traders cautious ahead of Federal Reserve FOMC meeting tonight
In the past 24 hours, although Bitcoin once exceeded $61,000 and hit a three-week high, "Cointelegraph" senior analyst Marcel Pechman pointed out that the derivatives market showed that short-term market sentiment has not improved, making Bitcoin Bulls are worried.
The U.S. bond market currently sees a 63% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by two percentage points in September, up from 34% last week. However, Stephen Juneau, senior economist at BofA Securities, pointed out that the retail market data released on September 17 did not significantly change the Federal Reserve's view of the economy.
Derivatives data showed a lack of investor enthusiasm even as Bitcoin briefly topped $61,000. Traders remain skeptical that the bull market momentum can be sustained, especially ahead of the FOMC interest rate meeting on September 18, with many reluctant to add to their positions.
Currently, the Bitcoin futures premium rate is stable at 6%, close to the neutral level of 5%; at the same time, the 25% Delta deviation value (25-delta) of the options market is close to 2%, representing a call option (Call) The volume of put options (Pull) is similar, indicating that the market is in neutral sentiment.
What is the option delta value: According to the introduction of Yuanta Futures, the so-called delta value refers to "when the spot price changes by one unit, the option price is expected to change accordingly." It will be calculated mathematically through the option pricing formula. generated by differential calculation.
Source: Laevitas.ch
Bitcoin futures 2-month premium data
Chart source: Laevitas.ch Bitcoin options 30-day 25-Delta value data
[Disclaimer] There are risks in the market, so investment needs to be cautious. The content of this article is for reference only. Participating in cryptocurrency investment involves great risks. Users should refer to more diverse indicators to judge whether to invest, and consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article are consistent with their specific circumstances. Invest accordingly and do so at your own risk.
