In the dynamic and ever-evolving world of crypto, the concept of altseason or season for spikes in the value of alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) has become a recurring theme, attracting the attention of both experienced and novice investors.
Altseason is a phenomenon that crypto fans eagerly await.
However, according to Into The Cryptoverse CEO Benjamin Cowen, 2023 may not be the altseason (short for altcoin season) year that everyone is hoping for.
■ Altseason Not In 2023
According to a Coin Edition report, in the latest video, Cowen presents a thought-provoking perspective on the current state of the crypto market.
He goes against the common belief that 2023 is an altseason, using the Advance Decline Index (ADI) and other analytical tools to support his claim.
According to Cowen, ADI for the altcoin market experienced a significant decline, even falling below its 2019 lows.
This leading indicator, which tracks the overall health of the altcoin market, does not display the euphoria typically associated with the altseason at this time of year.
Cowen went on to compare ADI's 2019 chart with its 2023 chart, which shows much lower enthusiasm.
As a result, he stated that current market conditions do not match the characteristics of an altcoin season, especially since most altcoins are recording new lows.
Cowen's analysis doesn't stop with ADI. He also criticized the practice of selecting altcoins that perform well to assess the overall market.
He acknowledged there are several cryptocurrencies that will stand out in 2023, but emphasized that many of them are relatively new to the crypto world and have not yet experienced the test of a bear market.
The experienced analyst argues that these crypto newcomers often have smaller market capitalizations, which partly explains their impressive performance.
However, Cowen points out that when assessing altcoins with larger market caps, their success in 2023 often comes after heavy selling in a bear market.
In such cases, the visible upward movement can be considered a short-term reversal only, not a true altseason rally.
■ Different Perspectives
Cowen's different take on the altcoin season also includes a comparison of ADI to the overall crypto market cap. While ADI showed a decline, the overall market capitalization maintained a flat trend.
Cowen noted that a major increase in overall market capitalization occurred earlier this year, following Bitcoin's impressive rally.
It is important to note that Bitcoin continued to set record price highs even into July, whereas many altcoins performed differently.
As a result, Cowen concluded that stagnant total market capitalization and falling altcoin prices indicate a significant movement of funds from the altcoin market to Bitcoin.
This conclusion goes against the consensus among analysts who claim that 2023 is the year of the altseason.
