Cryptocurrency daily summary:

• Both Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs had small net outflows yesterday;

• The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points increases

• EigenLayer Season 2 airdrop begins

Spot ETFs: Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs both saw small net outflows

According to coinglass data, on September 16, the US Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs had net outflows of US$3 million and US$13.6 million, respectively.

EigenLayer: The second quarter airdrop claim will continue until March next year

The Eigen Foundation announced on the X platform that the second season airdrop application will start on September 16 and will last until March 16, 2025. At the same time, a programmatic incentive plan will be launched to distribute EIGEN every week to reward stakers and operators.

If Bitcoin falls below $56,000, the cumulative long order liquidation intensity of mainstream CEX will reach 487 million

If it breaks through $60,000, the short position liquidation intensity will reach 526 million.

DeltaPrime project suffered a private key leak, losing about $5.9 million

Beosin Alert detected a suspected private key leak in the DeltaPrime project, which resulted in malicious upgrades of multiple key contracts and the theft of approximately US$5.9 million in assets.

CME "Fed Watch": The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is higher than 25 basis points

CME data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points this week is higher than 25 basis points, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points by November is highest.

Former SEC official attends crypto regulation hearing

A U.S. House of Representatives subcommittee will hold a hearing to explore the SEC’s politicized approach to digital assets, with former SEC commissioners Dan Gallagher and Michael Liftik set to testify.

MicroStrategy to issue $700 million in convertible senior notes in private placement

MicroStrategy announced plans to privately offer $700 million of convertible senior notes due in 2028, with additional purchase rights granted to initial purchasers.

Bhutan holds a large amount of Bitcoin

Arkham revealed that Bhutan is the fourth largest Bitcoin holding government, with 13,011 Bitcoins worth approximately $780 million, mainly from mining operations.

Ethereum L2 user base hits new high

Ethereum L2 user base hit a new high, with the number of active addresses increasing by 35.23% last week. L2's dominance has increased, accelerating the adoption of Web3.

CoinShares: Digital asset investment product inflows increased by $436 million

CoinShares reported $436 million in inflows into digital asset investment products last week, attributing it to a shift in market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Market analysis: Market risk aversion declines before the Fed's decision, Bitcoin stabilizes briefly in 4H

Market Trends:

Bitcoin (BTC) ended last week with a 10% rebound, but this week it continued its weekend decline, closing in the red for three consecutive days on the daily chart and currently falling to around $58,000. The altcoin sector has also followed suit with a weak downward trend. In this case, there is no altcoin sector with a sustained rise, and funds prefer short-term speculation and operations are cautious.

From a technical perspective, the 4H trend is currently supported by the 60-day moving average and has temporarily stabilized. If this level is lost, the price will most likely fall to $55,000 to find support. This week, we need to continue to pay attention to the pressure of the round mark of $60,000 above, as well as the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week.

From the perspective of capital flows, yesterday, both Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs showed a small net outflow trend, which had little impact on recent prices. Funds still favor Bitcoin, and Ethereum did not benefit from the launch of spot ETFs, and funds continued to flow out. From the perspective of capital flows of cryptocurrency spot in the past 7 days, among the top 20 in market value, Bitcoin and Ethereum had net outflows of 365 million and 243 million US dollars, respectively. Only Ripple showed a net inflow trend, which was only 1.33 million US dollars. It is not difficult to see from the flow of funds that the current risk preference of funds tends to be conservative, and the market speculation atmosphere has not yet started.

From a macro perspective, this Thursday will be a very important Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The market is currently betting that the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut exceeds 25 basis points, which will have a greater price impact on risky assets such as Bitcoin. Although the improvement in macro liquidity will help the crypto market return to bullish sentiment in the long run, a slightly bearish disturbance in the short term will be inevitable.

Market Hotspots:

MEME sector: Against the backdrop of a downward adjustment in the overall market, the MEME sector has increased by 0% in the past 24 hours. Benefiting from the launch of Turbo, BabyDoge, and Neiro on major exchanges yesterday, as well as the recent launch of Catizen (CATI), Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) and other chain games MEME on major exchanges including Gate.io, the activity of this sector is much higher than other copycat sectors. The leading sectors such as Turbo, BabyDoge, and Neiro have increased by 21.8%, 81.3%, and 977.8% respectively.

Social sector: The current market value of the social sector is $2.3B. Although it fell slightly by 0.3% in the past 24 hours, it still rose by 3.4% in the past week. Recently, the Web3 social infrastructure UXLINK token has been supported by many exchanges and has gained a certain amount of popularity, but overall, the sector is still developing in a sluggish manner in the long run. How to explore the effective integration of social and blockchain will be a long-term issue. The leading tokens in this sector performed relatively strongly, with GAL, UXLINK, and HIVE rising by 4.3%, 21.0%, and 0.2%, respectively.

Privacy sector: The Privacy sector has also been relatively resilient in the past 24 hours, with DASH, ZANO, and OXEN increasing by 1.0%, 1.1%, and 3.3% respectively. The Privacy sector was also relatively resilient last week, but due to the current situation of cryptocurrencies catering to regulation, the sector has been sluggish for a long time, and the current trend is more likely to be due to an oversold rebound.

Macro: The market is betting on the Fed to increase interest rate cuts, and Bitcoin continues to be weak

The Federal Reserve will decide whether to cut interest rates at its policy meeting this week. The market generally believes that the Fed will cut interest rates this week amid the weak US economy and the shadow of recession.

While observers have weighed in on the prospect of a rate cut, the latest data shows that the market's odds of a 50 basis point cut have increased significantly. This expectation pushed bond yields lower and put pressure on the U.S. dollar index, providing a relatively loose monetary environment for the cryptocurrency market.

For example, bond traders are now leaning toward the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week, a sharp contrast to expectations a few days ago when the market almost unanimously ruled out this option. This rapid reversal of expectations, reflected in swap contracts related to the Fed's interest rate decision, has caused the two-year Treasury yield to return to its lowest point in nearly two years, while the dollar index has also been dragged to a new low this year.

Market volatility this week will be highly dependent on investors' expectations of the Fed's rate cut decision, whether it is a 25 basis point or 50 basis point cut, which will cause the market to swing wildly between bullish sentiment and cautious risk aversion. Bitcoin's increased correlation with the stock market means that traditional financial market dynamics will have a greater impact on cryptocurrency prices. In addition, the decoupling of Bitcoin from gold shows that investors prefer traditional safe-haven assets in a risk-off environment.

In summary, in the context of the current macroeconomic situation dominating the market trend, Trump's attack again did not cause any disturbance. The market's attention is still focused on the Federal Reserve meeting this week. Regardless of the extent of the interest rate cut, the market may swing between bullish optimism and cautious risk reduction, which poses a challenge to the price trend of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.

The cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin, is currently at a crossroads. On the one hand, it is driven by global liquidity expectations and interest rate cut expectations, and on the other hand, it is also subject to potential impacts from the dynamics of traditional financial markets. Investors should be alert to the rapid changes in market sentiment and flexibly adjust their investment strategies to cope with possible market fluctuations.

Summarize

Bitcoin has fallen for three consecutive days. The current 4H trend has stabilized briefly. Limited by the influence of macro uncertainties, the support level below is focused on US$55,000, and the upper level is still under pressure from the round number mark of US$60,000.

In short, the current bearish sentiment in the crypto market has not dissipated, the capital speculation sector rotation is relatively fast, and the market share of Bitcoin continues to be high. Investors should pay close attention to the impact of this week's Federal Reserve decision on the market.