Hello followers sorry for inactivity, I have been very busy with IRL issues
Straight to the point, $BTC is the only thing we care about, so some analysis on the recent trend and what to expect next
Bitcoin pumped back moderately from 52.5k bottom all the way to 60k, this was not a surprise due to the extremely high short liquidations stacked all the way at 59k. Which is exactly what happened, there was a burst of price pump near 58k~59k and it slowly moved to 60k.
Not much short squeeze from here, Bitcoin will need real inflow to pump even higher. Considering how ATH is 73k and everyone was expecting 100k or idk, a few million dollars (XD), this is obviously not a super bullish run. It's at the end and just clinging on for life.
In fact, looking at 4hr chart Bitcoin was magically saved near 57k zone, when every indicator was suggesting a straight dive from here. Some very high volume trades pushed it back up, probably to short squeeze. Even then, now the volume is so low and it's stagnating.
I closed my short way earlier, and opened a small long/short hedge at 54k, closed my long and left my short, I will be adding more shorts every time Bitcoin pumps above 60k. Not all-in, split orders as always with low leverage.
Regarding the claims that Funding Rate being negative will be the cause for a price surge, Funding Rate was always 0.01% for BTC the last year, except certain times. And when BTC did actually peak to ATH, it was near 0.1%, 10x. and it still pumped so...
One thing to understand about funding rate is that it's just a tool to keep futures price and index price the same. Since we have Perpetual Futures, the gap between Futures and Spot market can be different. Which is called a Basis. There are ways to profit from this, called Gap Trading but more on that later. Anyways, this basis doesn't always mean something is super overvalued or undervalued. Since crypto is so volatile and is open for trading 24/7, the fluctuations can be enough to create a basis gap which can lead to abnormal funding rates. Unless the high funding rate persists, it's just market uncertainity.
There is still no real reason to buy BTC at this moment I believe, it's not a good investment for massive gains, even if BTC does pump significantly, there is no exponential gains anymore. That's for people who bought when BTC was like, $1000 or even $1. No more opportunities like that, unless you go leveraged long... which leads to another issue I will talk about later.
The imbalance between Risk-Reward ratio on BTC is probably why so many are going for altcoins and memecoins. Bitcoin, despite being one of the most stable coin in the crypto market, is still very volatile compared to traditional investments. It's simply not worth the risk. Many retails (or gamblers) want those massive fat gainz and BTC doesn't provide.
Which leads to another issue, BTC isn't really a "hedge against market uncertainity and inflation". That's called Gold. There is no "Safe asset" that just happens to pump and dump 3~5% every day. Or sometimes even 20%. That's Bitcoin. You want safe storage of value, just buy gold and treasury bonds. I can't believe why so many people think all those big companies would buy billions $$ worth of BTC. If they wanted to, they already would have done it. In fact, a lot of super rich people who claim BTC is good, have a shitton of money to buy BTC themselves too. Like, actually pump it significantly, but they don't.. A logical discrepency.
Anyways, the overall trend is still down. I believe Bitcoin will dump around 20%~25%, and when recession is over (Which will be another 2 years), we will have another hype driven giga bull market when everyone will be happy... until it crashes again and repeats. Until then, I will keep shorting. Speaking of hype, which is the only reason crypto pumps, it's really reaching the fatigue level. So think before you FOMO dive into some shitcoin. Bye!
Oh one last thing, watch out for FOMC meeting, which will probably do a 50bps rate cut and market will be super volatile. Could be an opportunity. Or your liquidation if you risk too much xD
