After so long, the price of Bitcoin has finally returned to above 60,000 yuan. This wave of rise is mainly driven by macroeconomics. Last night, the US released the September consumer confidence index, which created a 4-month high and expected short-term inflation to fall to a 4-year low. If the CPI data the day before yesterday still made the market worry about the problem of inflation stickiness, then last night's confidence index means that the inflation problem has been completely solved, which makes the Fed more confident in cutting interest rates by 50 basis points next week. The forecast given by CME also confirms this. The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September has risen to 50%, and without the constraints of inflation, the Fed's ability to cope with recession is also stronger. This is the main reason for the simultaneous rebound of US stocks and the currency market last night.

In addition, it can be seen from the strong income of Bitcoin ETF last night of 263 million US dollars that external funds have full confidence in encryption. Last night, Grayscale GBTC had positive capital inflows. I remember that this is the second time that Bitcoin ETF has been listed since January. The last time GBTC funds flowed in was two months ago. In addition, MicroStrategy even added a large position last night, spending $1.11 billion to buy 18,300 Bitcoins at an average price of 60,408. This shows that in the eyes of institutions, an upward trend has been formed, and the previous risk aversion operation that lasted for nearly a month can be lifted. On Monday, I expect various institutions to continue to enter the market to buy, because BlackRock did not even make a move last night, and the IBIT capital inflow was 0. I believe there will be action on Monday, because tonight and tomorrow night are both closed, so Friday's capital inflow data will guide the market in the next two days. It is expected that Bitcoin will remain stable above 6w.