When I woke up overnight, BTC returned to 60,000, and gold also soared, breaking away from the 2,500 oscillation line. After testing 52,500 again on September 7, it soared +15% in just one week. I don’t know how many times the short position was blown up, but I can be sure that those who hold full positions must have earned all the gains.
Has the bull market started? How can retail investors avoid the trap of buying more and escape the top accurately?
Bitcoin halving predictions in history: History tells us that in 2016 and 2020, the market started a bull run 163 days after the halving, and we have now experienced a 145-day halving cycle, with 18 days left to reach the critical 163-day mark. Usually, the peak of the Bitcoin bull market occurs around 500 days after the halving.
The trends of the last two bull markets have verified this. Will this bull market follow the same pattern? At least it can serve as a reference. It is expected that the peak of this bull market may occur in September to October 2025.
2. Is the explosion of FB and CAT20 a conspiracy?
Fractal Bitcoin creates a multi-layer extension mechanism to recursively generate multiple extension layers on the Bitcoin main chain to improve transaction processing capabilities. The project uses the same PoW consensus mechanism as Bitcoin and introduces rhythm mining, combining unlicensed mining and merged mining to improve mining efficiency. In addition, Fractal reapplies the OP_CAT opcode from the early version of BTC, providing developers with more powerful script processing capabilities, so various MINTs based on CAT20 have recently become popular and have generally occupied social media.
Currently, the market value of FB has been hyped up to 6 billion US dollars. The over-the-counter price is 40u/coin. The reason why it can be hyped up so high is because it is all over-the-counter transactions. The chips are not transparent, and the project team has joined forces with several big companies to control public opinion. The next step may be to hype up to 100U/coin.
Can FB be compared with the phenomenal pumpfun and brc20? First of all, the threshold of FB is high. Only those who hold FB are willing to go to this broken casino to play, so many studios have emerged to do proxy business. The reason why solana's pump became popular is that there were various celebrity coins that brought traffic in the early days, and the threshold for users to rush was lower. The model is simpler and more friendly. Why is the inscription awesome? Because the inscription can go beyond the circle, it is an innovation in asset issuance, which was absolutely a disruptive innovation at the time. Cat20 is more difficult and tends to be a small circle of PVP.
In addition, I personally believe that the solution of Bitcoin belongs to the category of side chain, and there is no significant difference in security from other Bitcoin second-layer extensions.
It solves the same old problem: scaling Bitcoin performance.
Although FB's external propaganda is that other solutions are no longer viable, in fact, although the many existing Bitcoin expansion solutions have their own problems, their performance expansion can already meet the current applications.
The problem now is that there are so many highways built, just like Ethereum, and there are many applications running on them, but there are no applications for large-scale users. How to break the circle and truly generate massive applications, this is what I will look at with new eyes.
In summary, we should still keep abreast of new narratives, and we can also participate in the experience on a small scale, but don’t expect to make huge profits immediately. From infrastructure to asset issuance, and then to ecological applications, at this stage, the key to evaluating huge opportunities for huge profits is always the additional traffic brought by new applications.