Let me first state the conclusion. A large amount of USDT has been transferred into exchanges, which has exceeded the peak of the bull market in 2021. However, most of these USDT are still accumulating in exchanges, and there is a high possibility that they are waiting for better opportunities.
The transfer volume of USDC also exceeded the peak of the bull market in 21 years, and these USDC did not form a large accumulation, but were converted into purchasing power.
Therefore, it can be inferred that the main users in Asia and Europe have already started to lay out, but it is not time for them to move forward yet. However, the daily transferred funds are increasing, and the accumulated funds are also increasing, so the outbreak period should not be far away. American investors have indeed been buying, and the purchase volume is not small.
Back to the data, let’s look at the first picture first.
This chart is a summary of USDT data flowing into exchanges in the past five years. It can be clearly seen that the first peak was when#BTCprice doubled in 2021, indicating that the buying sentiment in these two time periods was very strong. It can also be seen that since 2020, the data of USDT transferred into exchanges has been gradually increasing. This is one of the signs of the beginning of a bull market, and a large amount of funds have begun to enter the market.
Starting from 2022, the funds transferred to the exchange began to decrease and became lower and lower. At the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023, because the Federal Reserve ended the rapid interest rate hikes, the market unanimously believed that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle was about to end, so it stimulated the liquidity in the market. It can be seen that a large amount of funds continued to enter the market in a short period of time, raising the price of BTC.
The third stage is after BlackRock applied for the#Bitcoinspot ETF, which brought about the climax of the rise. Then we can see that starting from March, the amount of funds began to decline, but it still maintained a relatively stable state. It did not decrease like the end of the bull market at the end of 2021, when a large amount of funds transferred in. Instead, it still maintained a fairly high level.
This amount of funds is not lower than the normal state of the bull market in 21 years. So why so much funds have entered, but the price of BTC has not changed significantly? We need to look at the next picture.
A new data is added to this picture, which is the trend of USDT's stock in all exchanges. It is also divided into three stages. It can be clearly seen that the first stage is from 2020 to the beginning of 2022, that is, from the beginning to the end of the bull market. Although the stock of USDT in the exchange is also increasing, the increase is not very large, indicating that a large amount of funds are still mainly consumed, and investors' willingness to buy is very obvious.
During the transition period from 2022 to 2023, the amount of funds in the exchange is gradually decreasing. Part of this reduction is outflowing from the exchange and converted into legal currencies such as USD, and part of it is converted into purchasing power, which becomes the bottom of this stage.
Starting in 2023, with the change in monetary policy, large institutions such as BlackRock began to apply for spot ETFs, and it can be clearly seen that more funds were transferred to the exchange. However, part of these funds have been on the sidelines since 2024, and as time goes by, more and more investors are on the sidelines. However, these investors are transferring real money to the exchange.
Some friends may ask whether these people are long or short in U-based contracts. What I can say is that if you see that the current size of funds has exceeded 21.1 billion US dollars, you will know that this is not U-based contract funds, at least most of the funds are not. This part of the funds should be waiting for a more certain time.
When will the outbreak point be? My personal inclination is still that it will most likely be in Q4, especially during the election. Not to mention the historical data during elections, just look at the fact that the main Republican candidate this time has included cryptocurrency as part of the campaign, look at the promises made by Trump, and look at the U.S. media's portrayal of the election and the cryptocurrency industry.
In addition, there are the expectations brought by the halving. Although many friends say that ETFs have overdrawn the expectations of halving in advance, no one knows whether this will be the case. After all, from a historical perspective, the peak period of BTC after halving is often half a year to a year later, and it often coincides with the US presidential election. Therefore, there is still room for expectation.
Next is the expectation of a rate cut. There is a lot of debate now about whether the rate cut will be 25% or 50%, but these are all reflections of short-term market conditions. However, if we look at the long to medium term, as long as the US economy does not go into recession, the bigger the first rate cut, the better, and the stronger the better. The current market panic of 50% is because it is worried about risks that the Fed sees but we cannot. The Fed chose to cut interest rates by 50% in order to suppress this possible risk. This is why the market is worried.
Next is the FASB accounting standard, which can reflect the fair value of cryptocurrencies in financial reports. Simply put, if a listed company previously purchased BTC at $30,000, then the price of BTC will be calculated at $30,000. If the price of BTC drops to $16,000, then the BTC price in the financial report will be calculated as $16,000. However, when the price of BTC rises to $50,000, the price of BTC in the financial report will still only be $16,000.
In simple terms, in the previous accounting standards, cryptocurrencies could only be recorded as price decreases, not price increases. The new FASB will be able to use fair value to mark in financial statements. $30,000 is $30,000, $16,000 is $16,000, and $50,000 is $50,000.
PS: As of now, $Coin and $MSTR, including the cryptocurrency portion of mining companies’ finances, are not fairly valued.
In addition to USDT, another one to look at is USDC. Through our years of tracking and analysis, we have concluded that USDT is used more by Asian and European investors, while USDC is used more by American investors. Therefore, USDT represents more of the investment preferences of Asian and European investors, while USDC represents the investment preferences of American investors.
Continue looking at the pictures.
In the USDC data, the pace of transfers to the exchange is almost completely synchronized with that of USDT. The difference is that at the beginning of 2022, American investors tried to struggle once, but it disappeared quickly, and the extent of USDT's struggle was obviously smaller than that of USDC. By 2024, it can be clearly seen that the amount of funds transferred to the exchange has exceeded the peak time in 2021, which is also synchronized with USDT.
So are American investors also like Asian and European investors, with a large amount of funds stored in the exchange waiting for better opportunities? Continue to look at the picture.
In fact, we can see that although there is accumulation, the amount of accumulation is not very strong. It is much worse than the bull market in 2021. But in fact, we know that the amount of funds transferred to the exchange every day is not low. Of course, it is mainly transferred to US exchanges such as Coinbase and Kraken.
The amount of these funds accumulated is not high, only US$3.1 billion as of today. Relatively speaking, the utilization rate of USDC is much higher than that of USDT, which means that more American investors using USDC are buying more cryptocurrencies instead of waiting.
So our final conclusion is that now, whether it is USDT or USDC, a large number of investors are preparing and have already started to deploy. Among them, investors in Asia and Europe are still mainly on the sidelines, and the participation rate is slightly lower, but a large amount of funds have entered the exchange and are ready to enter the market at any time, while USDC is currently in a state of purchase. American investors are still the main buyers.
