Harris and Trump face off for the first time: The criticism is well-thought-out, but the policy is out of focus

On September 10, 2024, local time, in Seattle, the United States, citizens watched the presidential debate. Visual China Photo

"We don't want to go back to the past, and we won't go back to the past. It's time to turn the page." On the evening of September 10th local time, after a fierce debate that lasted nearly 1 hour and 45 minutes, facing the Republican candidate Trump in this US election, Democratic Party and US Vice President Harris said in her closing speech.

Trump retorted, "She has been vice president for three and a half years. She has three and a half years to solve the border problem and create jobs. Why didn't she do it?"

In this first and possibly only head-to-head confrontation before the election, the two candidates accused and attacked each other about their experience in office and policy proposals. Harris was eloquent, using body language and rich facial expressions to refute Trump; Trump showed a calmer and more serious side than usual. Although he interrupted several times in the second half of the debate, he did not cause the situation to get out of control.

The debate was held at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, the birthplace of the U.S. Constitution. Security was tight outside the venue, streets were closed, and bus routes were also affected. It is worth noting that when the debate began, Harris took the lead in greeting Trump and extending her hand, ending the record of presidential candidates not shaking hands during the debate in the past eight years.

According to an instant survey conducted by SSRS, a polling organization commissioned by CNN, most voters who have watched the debate believe Harris is the winner. The poll shows that 63% of debate viewers (a group that does not represent all voters) believe Harris won the debate, while only 37% believe Trump won the debate.

Diao Daming, a professor at the School of International Relations of Renmin University of China, said that Harris's performance was generally satisfactory, and Trump also performed at a normal level. Meng Weizhan, a lecturer at the Institute of Advanced Social Sciences of Fudan University, mentioned that the "Harris' first debate failure" that Republicans had expected did not happen. "However, a debate is unlikely to determine the outcome of an election. There is no obvious change in the supporters of the candidates of the two parties, and the basic base can still be maintained by each party," Meng Weizhan analyzed.

Shape the other party

At the beginning of the debate, Harris quickly entered the "attack" state, seizing Trump's weaknesses, trying to remind him of his disgraceful record such as his failed campaign in 2020 and corporate bankruptcy, and criticized him for the evaluation of other national leaders calling Trump a "disgrace."

In Diao Daming's view, Harris's goal is to avoid talking about policies while angering Trump, and her tactics are clearly effective. "Harris's several attacks - including international leaders' views on Trump, Trump's own policy legacy, and the views of Trump's former team members on Trump himself - are not difficult to see from Trump's performance that these remarks have irritated him a lot."

In response to the scale of Trump's rallies, which he is usually proud of, Harris sarcastically said that "people often leave early 'because of fatigue and boredom'". This sharp criticism seemed to anger Trump, and he began to launch a "self-proving" rebuttal, emphasizing that he was "disappointed" with the scale of the number of people at Harris' campaign rallies. "My rallies are the largest and most incredible rallies in political history." Trump said.

Unlike before, Trump deliberately avoided using insulting remarks during the debate, and deliberately changed the subject when the host mentioned his controversial remarks. Al Jazeera commented that Trump "lacked focus" when responding to a series of topics, rarely responded directly to the host's questions, and seemed more concerned about how to attack Harris.

Throughout the debate, Trump's approach was to portray Harris as a radical liberal who was out of touch with reality and a speculator with an uncertain political stance. Harris on the right side of the screen couldn't help laughing when she heard this. When the host asked Trump why he questioned Harris's racial identity, he deliberately avoided the question, saying that he didn't care who Harris was.

As Trump spoke, he leaned forward from time to time and often shook his fingers to emphasize his points. When he refuted Harris's criticism of his criminal convictions, he again pointed the finger at Democrats, saying that "every case was initiated by 'them' (Democrats)."

Several Republicans told POLITICO, a political news media, that they did not think anyone had a "relatively outstanding" performance in the debate. A Republican lobbyist admitted that Trump did not perform well, and so did Harris. "I don't think this will change anything. I think they are both struggling. Both sides are expressing the views they want to express, but this is just consolidating their base." The person analyzed.

Diao Daming believes that the public has different expectations for the two's performance. "Trump's usual dramatic and tense performance in front of the camera makes the public have higher expectations for his performance this time. Unlike Trump's seventh presidential election debate, Harris is participating for the first time after all, so some people thought that Harris might have problems. In this case, it is obviously easier for Harris to complete the task and make people feel that her performance is ideal."

Facing the policy

Al Jazeera analyzed that Harris and Trump continued to attack each other personally for more than 100 minutes, but the substantive policies involved were few. Reuters also pointed out in its report that the debate between the two did not focus on specific policy details.

For Harris, who has just been on the campaign trail for less than two months, this debate is a great opportunity to explain her position. Hans Noel, an associate professor of political science at Georgetown University, said in an interview with the media, "This is the first time we have seen her speak directly to defend herself and talk about policies, including responding to Trump's attack line."

Diao Daming believes that Harris’ performance in policy expression is not enough to respond to external doubts, "but we also know that the debate itself is not the best occasion for policy expression."

At the beginning of the debate, Harris emphasized the vision of "opportunity economy" and tried to portray herself as a middle-class candidate. At the same time, she said that Trump is committed to tax cuts for large companies and wealthy groups, in order to weaken Trump's advantage among swing voters. Similar to before, Harris continued to emphasize the child tax credit policy, saying that it would provide a $6,000 tax break for young families with children.

Trump responded by saying Harris "copied Biden's plan," trying to equate Harris with Biden's achievements in office. "Everything Harris and other Democrats have done will absolutely kill the American people and destroy the economy," Trump said.

Compared with immigration, abortion and other issues, the economy and inflation have become the most concerned topics for the American people. According to the latest poll released by CBS, 80% of voters said that economic issues are the main factor affecting their voting tendency, which is more important than issues such as abortion and climate change. About 40% of voters said that if Trump wins, the price level may fall - this proportion is twice as much as the voters who believe that Harris has the ability to achieve price reductions.

Immigration has always been seen as Harris's weak spot, and Trump repeatedly turned the topic to this issue during the debate. "Our country is falling, we are a failed country." Trump tried to attack Harris's record on immigration, accusing Harris of failing to solve the problem of illegal immigration during her tenure.

On the issue of abortion, Harris seized on Trump's controversial position on the issue, pointing out that Trump's decision to nominate and appoint conservative justices to the Supreme Court was the key to the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Trump tried to distance himself from his deputy Vance's remarks on a national abortion ban, indirectly conveying his views against a national abortion ban. Trump also said that he believed in "exceptions such as rape, incest, and threats to a woman's life during pregnancy," and said that "each state can vote on its own on an abortion ban without being tied to the federal government's policy."

"Harris and Trump have similar strategies. They blur the policy areas they are not good at, but at the same time guide the debate in a direction that is beneficial to themselves," Meng Weizhan analyzed.

"Trump repeatedly emphasized that the other side has no policies and no plans. However, for a long time, Trump has not been good at promoting policies. What he has done more is mobilizing the people and exaggerating slogans. This is why after watching the debate, the audience did not feel the effectiveness of Trump's policies." Diao Daming believes that Trump basically maintained the same restraint as in the last debate, and at the same time hoped to compare the effectiveness of policies with Harris, but given that he is not good at this, this method cannot pose the most deadly threat to Harris.

Pennsylvania voters

Pennsylvania, where Philadelphia is located, has 19 electoral votes, the most among the seven key swing states. Most experts have predicted that the candidate who wins Pennsylvania will have a chance to enter the White House. For Harris, Pennsylvania is very important. Since 1948, no Democratic candidate has been able to enter the White House without losing Pennsylvania.

A poll conducted by CBS and polling agency YouGov from the 3rd to the 6th of this month showed that Harris and Trump's support rates in Pennsylvania were evenly matched, both at 50%. In terms of registered voters' enthusiasm for voting, Harris is ahead of Trump - 82% of registered Democrats are "excited" about Harris, while 75% of registered Republicans are "excited" about Trump. However, the Associated Press also pointed out in its report that although the number of Democratic voters in the state is higher than that of Republican voters, the gap in the number of registered voters between the two parties has steadily decreased since 2008, from 1.2 million to about 350,000 at present.

As the birthplace of the US oil industry, hydraulic fracturing is an issue of vital interest to Pennsylvania voters. Harris claimed in the debate that she would not implement a ban on hydraulic fracturing after taking office, saying that her position is that it is necessary to invest in a variety of energy sources to reduce dependence on foreign oil. This attitude is obviously inconsistent with Harris's policy advocacy of banning hydraulic fracturing during the 2020 Democratic primary. It is reported that this attitude shift may be due to Pennsylvania's dependence on natural gas production.

As the second largest natural gas producing state in the United States, natural gas brings a lot of economic benefits and employment opportunities to Pennsylvania. Currently, there are more than 100,000 operating oil and gas wells in the area, of which 12,000 use hydraulic fracturing. It is worth mentioning that unlike progressive Sanders, Biden did not advocate a complete ban on hydraulic fracturing to extract energy during the 2020 campaign. Instead, he emphasized the prohibition of the development of new oil and gas wells while promoting green energy policies, thereby gradually replacing hydraulic fracturing and dependence on traditional fossil energy.

Philadelphia public radio station WHYY reported that while watching the debate, Pennsylvania voters, including Democrats and Republicans, reached a rare "consensus" - that Harris performed better than they expected.

Harris supporter Greg Coleman told the media that Harris' performance was better than he expected. "It went very smoothly. I think Harris controlled the topic very well, but more importantly, she maintained the continuity of the topic very well. Although Trump is very good at catching his opponents off guard, he obviously did not succeed tonight."

Trump supporter Tommy Feldman also said that Harris' performance "definitely surprised him." "I thought her performance would be much worse than it was. I used to see Trump rambling a lot, so it didn't surprise me too much, but Kamala's performance definitely exceeded my expectations of her."

But Pennsylvania also has a large number of Muslim voters. After a new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict broke out, many Arab voters said they would not continue to vote for the Democratic Party in 2024 because the Biden administration supports the Israeli government's position.

In response to the protests launched by pro-Palestinian groups, the Philadelphia police set up roadblocks in the outer area of ​​the National Constitution Center and prohibited unauthorized persons from entering the area including Independence Hall. Bisan Ahmed, an organizer of the Philadelphia Palestinian Alliance, said they hope voters will not vote for Harris or Trump, saying that neither of them can represent Palestinians or people of color.

Diao Daming believes that if Harris fails to win Pennsylvania, but can win Arizona and Georgia at the same time, she still has a chance of winning. "In addition to Pennsylvania, the more critical swing states are Georgia and Arizona, including Hispanic voters in Arizona, African-American voters, suburban moderate voters and middle-class voters in Georgia."

A poll conducted by polling agency YouGov for "SAY24", a joint project of The New York Times and Stanford University, Arizona State University and Yale University, showed that Harris was leading in polls in four key swing states (Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania), but lagged behind Trump in three other states (North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona), with a lag of no more than 2 percentage points.

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