Ether’s (ETH) spot price could rise as high as $12,000 to $22,000 by the end of this decade in an upside scenario, according to two estimates from analysts at cryptocurrency brokerage StoneX Digital and asset manager VanEck.
Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital asset research, expects the Ethereum network to generate up to $66 billion in annual free cash flow by 2030, driving spot ETH’s price as high as $22,000 per token.
David Kroger, a data scientist at StoneX, sees ETH prices climbing to roughly $4,600 over the next 18 months.
“The upside, though, is much higher—around $12,621—especially considering some of the upcoming technological upgrades that Ethereum is working on,” Kroger said, speaking alongside Sigel at a Sept. 10 StoneX panel.
ETH metrics for the 12 months prior to June 2024. Source: VanEck
The estimates are based on anticipated value accrual to ETH holders from transaction fees as Ethereum processes a growing portion of the world’s transactions.
“Ethereum processed roughly $4 trillion in settlement value over the last year and another $5 trillion in stablecoin transfers annually. So this is far bigger than PayPal and is beginning to approach networks like Visa,” Sigel said.
Since launching in 2015, Ethereum has generated $3 billion in fees (denominated in ETH), Sigel said. Other ETH value accrual mechanisms include “burning”—or permanently removing from circulation—a portion of transaction fees and emitting new ETH to reward stakers, who post ETH as collateral to secure the network.
Scenarios for ETH by 2030. Source: VanEck
Sigel said positive ETH price action may start as soon as this year, as Ethereum recovers from a sharp dropoff in revenue after the network’s March Dencun upgrade cut transaction fees by approximately 95%.
“There wasn’t enough volume to make up for the fee decline, so investors have become less constructive about the chain,” Sigel said. “Ethereum still has some levers it can pull to recover value [...] That’s what we’re looking at for the second half of the year.”
Growth in Ethereum’s daily active users. Source: VanEck
Ethereum’s investment case “starts with a macro acknowledgment that there’s decreasing trust in existing centralized institutions. Globally… there’s strong demand for decentralized alternatives where the rules are equal for all,” Kroger said.
He added that “demand is more pronounced outside the [United States] because of the damage done to the credibility of the US dollar.”
Sigel said an election win by Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris would be “bullish for Bitcoin and Bitcoin dominance” but “might be hostile to coins other than Bitcoin.”
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