Daily Summary:

  • BTC ETF resumes net inflows, the market may bottom out and rebound

According to Farside Investor data, the US Bitcoin spot ETF inflows were $117 million yesterday. Among them, Fidelity FBTC had a net inflow of $63.2 million and Grayscale BTC had a net inflow of $41.1 million. BlackRock IBIT had no inflows or outflows.

The US Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of $11.4 million yesterday. Among them, Fidelity FETH had a net inflow of $7.1 million and BlackRock ETHA had a net inflow of $4.3 million.

K33 Research report: Funding rate indicators indicate that the market will bottom out and rebound in the coming weeks

One reliable indicator points to a sharp rebound in the coming weeks and months, K33 Research said in a market report released on Tuesday. According to the report, the 30-day average funding rate for perpetual swaps has fallen to negative levels, which has only happened six times since 2018.

K33 analysts Vetle Lunde and David Zimmerman wrote: "In the past, when the monthly funding rate fell to a negative value, it usually meant that the market had bottomed out." The report said that after the indicator turned negative, the average return in the next 90 days was 79%, while the median return in 90 days was 55%.

Traders still expect the Fed to make at least two big rate cuts in the near future

Traders in the U.S. interest rate options market are still betting that the Federal Reserve will make at least one super-large rate cut this year, but it may not happen before the U.S. presidential election on November 5. Most economists expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and two more rate cuts this year.

Recent activity in options tied to the secured overnight funding rate suggests traders are increasingly positioning for a rate cut of about 150 basis points ahead of the Fed’s Jan. 29 policy decision. That’s the same dynamic that’s playing out in the swaps market right now.

Market analysis: Market volatility, lack of hot spots

Market Trends

-BTC fell below $57,000, and the market trend is not very clear. The market is waiting for the release of CPI data tonight;

-ETH failed to break through the $2,400 mark and returned to around $2,350, with a significantly narrowed amplitude;

- Altcoins generally fell, and the market lacked a centralized hotspot;

-In terms of data indicators, today's AHR999 index is 0.6, not far from the bottom-picking range; the fear and greed index is 37, and panic sentiment continues to persist.

Market Hotspots

1. DeFi sector: The old DeFi project AAVE broke through $150, with a cumulative increase of more than 25% in the past three days. From the news point of view, Trump's second son launched a copycat version of Aave, and today's debate between US presidential candidate Trump has injected some hot spots into the project.

2. RWA sector: OM rose by more than 10%, and PENDLE also achieved 4 consecutive daily small steps. The RWA sector is one of the fresher narratives in this round of market. At present, the market value of the entire sector is relatively small, and it may be a sector worthy of users' attention.

Macroeconomics: US stocks fluctuated, will the stock market remain weak in September?

The three major U.S. stock indexes rose and fell, with the S&P 500 up 0.45% to 5495.52 points, the Dow Jones down 0.23% to 40736.96 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.84% ​​to 17025.88 points. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was 3.65%, and the 2-year Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to the Fed's policy rate, was 3.59%.

Among the popular US stocks, Apple fell 0.36%, Microsoft rose 2.09%, Nvidia rose 1.53%, Amazon rose 2.37%, Google C rose 0.31%, Google A fell 0.03%, TSMC fell 0.18%, Tesla rose 4.58%, and AMD rose 3.40%.

Currently, the U.S. stock market is facing a number of key issues. The important August CPI inflation index will be announced on Wednesday local time. The Federal Reserve will hold its September monetary policy meeting next week. Investors are also paying close attention to topics such as trade policy and taxation in today's U.S. election debate.

The current sentiment in the U.S. stock market is cautious. Investors are closely watching the fears of a U.S. recession and the possibility of a soft landing. With the cooling of the labor market, many market participants are worried that the Fed's actions may have lagged behind actual needs.

September is historically a weak month for U.S. stocks, and investors remain cautious about the impact of seasonal factors on stocks and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming U.S. presidential election on November 5.

Summarize

Overall, the cryptocurrency market is currently in a wait-and-see state, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices fluctuating slightly. Altcoins generally fell, but individual sectors such as DeFi and RWA performed relatively well. In terms of macroeconomics, the US August CPI data to be released tonight may have a greater impact on the market, and investors should pay close attention. In the short term, market sentiment tends to be cautious, and investors should reasonably control risks and avoid blindly chasing high prices.