Cryptocurrencies have stabilized after last week’s moves, but implied volatility remains elevated and the market appears to be anticipating a volatile week ahead. Two key events this week could lead to market volatility: the much-anticipated presidential debate between former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris, and the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September 18 interest rate decision.
On September 11, US time, the US will release the CPI data for August. The speech by Fed Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting last month was widely interpreted by the market as setting the tone for the September policy shift. However, as employment data fluctuates, there is still uncertainty as to whether the first interest rate cut will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points. The CPI report will be the last key data puzzle before the September resolution. If it meets market expectations, it may lay the foundation for the start of a new round of interest rate cuts in the easing cycle.
The current risk reversal of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) in favor of puts reflects the market's concerns about potential downside risks. However, despite volatility and uncertainty, the market remains "structurally bullish" on crypto assets and is using this wave of declines to accumulate more long-term bullish trades. Data shows that the purchase of large call options in March 2025, with exercise prices of $85,000, $100,000 and $120,000, respectively, indicates the market's continued confidence in the long-term growth of assets.
At 9 pm on September 10, US time, Democratic presidential candidate Harris and Republican candidate Trump will hold their first televised debate in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. These two are among the most controversial figures in recent American political history, and many analysts believe that their debate will drive the volatility of cryptocurrencies.
Trump has repeatedly expressed support for cryptocurrencies in past speeches, and even hopes to make the United States the "capital of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency." This stance has attracted the attention of many crypto investors, who believe that Trump's election will bring more friendly policies to the crypto market.
Instead, Harris has been more cautious about cryptocurrencies in public, not even mentioning the sector in her latest policy plan. This move has disappointed the outside world with her stance, as Harris's side has previously emphasized the importance of passing bipartisan cryptocurrency legislation. With the lack of actual support for cryptocurrencies from the Democratic Party, there has been criticism within the crypto community that Harris is just paying lip service and not paying enough attention to this fast-growing industry.
Since the Democratic Party and the Republican Party have opposite positions on cryptocurrencies, cryptocurrency market participants will pay close attention to the performance of the two candidates in this week's debate. If nothing unexpected happens, the performance of Trump and Harris will affect the price fluctuations of the currency. The price fluctuations of political meme coins will also be further amplified, and the price may fluctuate accordingly with the debate offense and defense.
It is worth noting that this debate is likely to affect the outcome of the US presidential election in November. Trump and Harris represent completely different cryptocurrency policies, which makes the market full of uncertainty and expectations about future cryptocurrency price fluctuations. Ultimately, different political positions and policy tendencies may cause extreme fluctuations in cryptocurrency prices, even reaching new highs or lows at the end of the year.
Bernstein, a US brokerage and research company, predicts that if Trump wins the election, BTC could reach the $80,000 to $90,000 range by the end of the year. This prediction is based on Trump's cryptocurrency-friendly policy inclinations, including the possible appointment of a head of a regulatory agency that supports the crypto market. This will bring new opportunities to the crypto industry and could boost investor confidence, thereby driving up Bitcoin prices.
Trump has mentioned on many occasions that he hopes to support the further development of Bitcoin mining and cryptocurrencies through policies, believing that this will promote economic growth and technological innovation in the United States. Therefore, the market's optimism about Trump's victory is rising, and many investors are beginning to increase their investment in Bitcoin.
In contrast to Trump's optimistic expectations, Harris' victory is believed to lead to a drop in Bitcoin prices. Since she did not mention cryptocurrencies in her policy planning, the market generally believes that her government may take a conservative approach to crypto policies. This policy uncertainty may cause investors to lose confidence, leading to a sharp drop in Bitcoin prices.
Analysts pointed out that Harris' victory could not only cause Bitcoin to fall below $50,000, but could even drop to the $30,000 to $40,000 range. This prediction worries many investors because the crypto market has been experiencing long-term price fluctuations, and changes in market sentiment will further exacerbate this trend.
In addition, the current crypto market generally lacks catalysts, and the market's attention is shifting to the upcoming election debate. After falling below $60,000 at the end of August, Bitcoin entered a relatively stable state, and its performance in early September did not improve. Despite this, the market's expectations for the fourth quarter still exist, especially after the Trump-Harris debate, new investment opportunities may emerge.
Looking ahead, whether Trump or Harris wins, it will have a profound impact on the cryptocurrency market. If Trump wins, more investment is expected to flow into crypto assets such as Bitcoin, driving up their prices; if Harris wins, the market may face challenges from tighter regulation and policy uncertainty, causing increased price volatility. Investors need to make prudent decisions in this uncertain environment, pay attention to policy trends and market sentiment, and adjust their investment strategies in a timely manner.
