The American political landscape is becoming increasingly important for cryptocurrencies. Today, politics will influence Bitcoin as the first round of the Harris-Trump debate takes place this evening. The outcome of the presidential debate could positively impact the #BTC price, especially if Trump mentions cryptocurrencies or emerges victorious on the prairies.
Let me remind you that Trump and the Republicans are considered more cryptocurrency-oriented than the Democrats. Trump promises to make the US the crypto capital of the world, so if he wins, there is a high probability of a large-scale bull rally in November. Bernstein analysts expect Bitcoin to rise to $90,000 if Trump wins the November elections. However, if Kamala Harris wins, this could lead to a fall to $30,000.
It is also worth monitoring the dynamics of spot BTC ETFs, which have a direct impact on BTC prices. Yesterday was the first positive day after a series of negative flows. If these inflows begin to grow again, then the BTC price will resume its upward trend.
According to the Smart Money Index, while the broader market sentiment was filled with fear, large investors took advantage of this pessimism to accumulate more BTC. The reduction in foreign exchange reserves coupled with the increase in accumulation indicates a supply constraint that will eventually lead to higher BTC prices.
Globally, I expect a rebound in Q4 2024 after consolidation in September, as in previous years. Historically, after halving, October, November and December could be months of growth.
