2024
• September: 15% chance
The probability of an explosive rise in September is low. The market is still in a wait-and-see mode, waiting for more clear signals related to the halving event. Investors may not have made large-scale deployments yet.
• October: 20% chance
The chances are slightly higher in October. As the halving event approaches, market participants begin to make arrangements in advance and gradually accumulate positions. Investors may begin to adjust their investment strategies based on expectations.
• November: 30% chance
The chances increase further in November. As expectations for the halving event become clearer, market sentiment gradually turns positive, and buying may increase, especially institutional investors may begin to enter the market.
• December: 40% chance
The chances are higher in December. As the year ends, investors may be rebalancing their portfolios and making final preparations for the 2024 halving. The market may be starting to show momentum for higher prices.
2025
• January: 45% chance
The probability of an explosive rise in January has further increased. The start of a new year could bring fresh capital inflows and market momentum. Investors may adjust their positions more aggressively in anticipation of the continued impact of the halving effect.
• February: 50% chance
The probability reaches 50% in February. With the halving event just months away and market sentiment reaching new highs, investors may expect a more significant price increase, especially if macroeconomic conditions improve.
• March: 55% chance
The probability rose further to 55% in March. As the halving event draws closer, market excitement may be at its peak, buying will be strong, and prices may climb further.
• April: 60% chance
April is a period of high probability of explosive growth, reaching 60%. Assuming that the halving event takes place in April or May, the market’s expectations for the halving effect will be fully reflected during this period, driving the price higher.
• May: 55% chance
The probability fell slightly back to 55% in May. There may be some profit-taking or adjustments in the short term after the halving event, but the long-term effects of reduced supply may still support continued price increases.
• June: 50% chance
The probability drops back to 50% in June. As the market enters the post-halving consolidation period, prices may fluctuate, but if macroeconomic conditions are good and demand increases, prices still have the potential to rise further.
Summarize
The probability of Bitcoin's explosive rise gradually increases in the second half of 2024, especially when it is close to the halving event (from December 2024 to April 2025). This is the most likely period for rapid price rise. After a halving event, the market typically goes through a short-term correction or consolidation period, but prices are likely to remain on an upward trend due to the long-term effects of reduced supply.
