My base case for the next ~3 months:
1⃣ Kamala Harris to win the US elections
2⃣ Bitcoin to trade below 49.4K on any day between 28th of October and 15th of December, most likely between 11th of November and 8th of December
3⃣ Weekly swing low between 28th of October and 15th of December, most likely between 11th of November and 8th of December
4⃣ September, October and November to close below 72K and above 44.6K
Explanation / detailed TA:
❌📈The weekly uptrend now is completely broken: price below Kijun Sen, death TK cross, CS in the candles, Kijun Sen turning down.
⌛️📉Statistically it's most likely to get a correction at least to SSB - and we still haven't done this.
📅 The time cycles suggest a window for a cycle low between 28th of October and 15th of December.
We have three time cycle patterns suggesting this: Kihon Suchi 17 LL, Jugi 17 HL/LH and Taito Suchi 15 LL.
📕 The Kihon Suchi model is when we have cycles without a gap between them but any cycle can have different length, provided that the length is a Kihon Suchi number.
📗 The Jugi model is when we can have cycles overlapping one over another but they all must be with the same Kihon Suchi number.
📘 The Taito Suchi model is when we have equal cycles and they can be with any number, even if not a Kihon Suchi one, but the cycles must be equal.
❌🟰 And equal actually means +-2: the max acceptable deviation.
The last two LL cycles were 15 so this could be technically perceived both as Kihon Suchi 17 and Taito Suchi 15. As we allow +-2 deviation, what is 15 could be 17-2 and thus Kihon Suchi, but could be also a straight 15 and in this case if it's Taito Suchi 15 we need to consider the next cycle also as low as 13 (15-2 deviation).
The latter I personally doubt (but can't write off) as explained below:
🗓️🎯 While we have this whole range from the earliest to the latest forecast dates by merging the three cycles, the strongest confluence between them is between 11th of November and 8th of December.
⏰⏲️🕰️This is when the forecasts of the Kihon Suchi overlaps with the Jugi one - and even the Taito Suchi one fits inside for three weeks as a triple confluence.
And to be honest, while technically Taito Suchi is possible here, for me it's more likely the 15 to be just a 17-2, i.e. Kihon Suchi because since the bear market bottom this is a consistent pattern which keeps repeating and Bitcoin and crypto in general tends to respect Kihon Suchi based-models.
So while the entire window is a possibility, the highest chance for a swing low is within this tighter window: 11th of November to 8th of December.
🗓️⚠️🗓️On top of that the monthly cycles also suggest a cycle low between October 2024 and February 2025 - so a very major low is likely to be set in this period and the weekly cycle window is a good confluence fitting into this bigger monthly window.
SSB is below 49.4K in this period and as I explained already, statistically it's most likely to get visited after the trend gets broken.
🔽 So I can see $BTC going there or even lower at the window for a weekly cycle low.
⏬Or, if it goes to SSB earlier, it makes sense to go even lower in the window for a cycle low - because the low should not be in yet in this case.
That's why I expect a weekly swing low in these dates, and I expect these prices in them (weekly SSB or lower).
❌🔼🗓️On the other side, exactly because the weekly uptrend is broken, as I have explained and backed with data a few times that it is very unlikely to see a new uptrend before resetting in the cloud and waiting 26+ weeks since the initial broke time - which translates to late December.
I don't write off completely ATH but I think that if we see one it will be quickly faded if the uptrend hasn't reset properly - as in 2021.
That's why I don't see a $BTC monthly close above 72K - because 72K is the key resistance which if broken we may start mooning.
❌🌕And I don't think we will moon at least before December, or even 2025 (when the monthly Kijun Sen will turn up) for the reasons above. More details are available in the links I posted above.
🐂❌☠️ 🌊I don't believe this bull market is over and I've said this many times. Because we lack the last bullish wave of the monthly bullish Sandan structure as per the Wave Theory. And we haven't seen full euphoria yet.
🐼 44.6K is the monthly Kijun Sen and closing below it always has meant that we are in a bear market.
That's why I don't see a monthly close below it either and I provide this range: >44.6K to <72K. Because these are the invalidation points for nor bull, nor bear market.
️🇺🇸The US elections are on 5th of November and the forecast window for a weekly cycle low with highest probability is exactly after them.
👨👩🦰📉That tells me that we should see a dump immediately after them.
👨🚀As Trump is seen as a pro-crypto president, even if we were to see a dump after his potential victory, I think it would make more sense his victory to mark a major top or even a cycle top as a sell the news event.
🐂⬅️➡️🧸Because normally bullish news are actually - bearish (they come at tops), and bearish news are actually - bullish (they come at bottoms).
❌👨For the TA reasons above I don't see the price mooning before the elections, thus I don't see a crash from a major pump above ATH and therefore I don't see Trump winning.
🍾👩🦰🎉 Instead I see Kamala Harris to win as this should be seen as mega bearish - while in reality it might be a shakeout before the next, probably last big leg up.
Speaking of a shakeout before the next big leg up - as I said above and many times before, I still believe that the bull market is not over.
🖐️But I prefer first to wait and see if at least all the bullet points 1-4 from this scenario will play out and then to reevaluate and confirm if I still think that we go up after that.
Too many things can change in three months, let's go one step at a time. A forecast for a quarter of a year ahead is a enough of a big deal.
⚠️🐂🪤Also, speaking of going up, as I mentioned a few times recently, we must be cautious of bull traps for the next couple of months when a bull rally is unlikely.
⚠️🐂🪤🇺🇸👨👩🦰I don't have a clear indications for this from now, but especially before the elections I wouldn't be surprised to see a bull trap as normally the biggest traps come before the biggest dumps. So if we see bullish news just before the elections, or just a bullish PA, we must be very cautious of a potential bull trap.
I have done quite some efforts to challenge myself against this scenario during the last few weeks, I still think that it is the most likely scenario by a decent margin.
If it's invalidated at some point and my opinion changes I will provide an update.
