If the non-farm payrolls are "explosive", the Fed may use a big move! A 50 basis point rate cut is imminent?

The highlight of tonight is here! Nick Timiraos, the mouthpiece of the Fed, has already said that tonight's non-farm payrolls report will determine the Fed's next interest rate cut. If the data "explodes" again, a sharp 50 basis point rate cut is coming! But if the data is strong, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut will increase.

The Fed meeting on September 17-18 will be a critical moment, and tonight's non-farm payrolls data is likely to be a decisive factor. New York Fed President Williams and Fed Governor Waller will speak after the data is released. This is the last chance to set expectations for the market, so everyone should pay attention!

Why do you think so?

Although the current labor market has not fallen into recession, it is also "walking on thin ice". Even if tonight's data is good, the overall market weakness signal cannot be ignored. A 50 basis point rate cut has become a prediction of some economists. For example, KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk pointed out that signs of weakness in the labor market are becoming more and more obvious, and the Fed must prevent the job market from further deteriorating.

Lao Lin suggests:

Tonight is a decisive moment! If the non-agricultural data is a surprise, we may see an increase in expectations for a sharp interest rate cut, which will be a short-term positive for the market. Seize this rhythm to make arrangements. However, if the data performance exceeds expectations and the Fed only cuts interest rates by 25 basis points, the market may react flatly. Everyone must be cautious and keep their footing.

Follow Lao Lin:

A big market is coming, and the calm before the storm is most worthy of attention. Lock in Lao Lin and accompany you to seize market opportunities. See you tonight!

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