Since June 21, BTC prices have fallen 12%, showing a similar trend to previous years, where crypto assets fall in the summer and then experience increased volatility. In addition, several key events are expected to significantly impact BTC market dynamics. Major events including the release of the US jobs report on Friday, September 6, the presidential debate between Harris and Trump on Tuesday, September 10, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy decision on Wednesday, September 18 will shape the expectations of the entire market.
US non-farm payrolls data recorded the smallest increase in three years, and labor market risks became the focus
Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed that U.S. companies had the lowest number of job openings in July since early 2021; Jinshi reported that U.S. companies added the fewest jobs last month since early 2021; ADP data showed that private sector employment increased by 99,000 in August, and the increase in the previous month was revised down. The latest data was lower than all expectations. Multiple data show that the U.S. labor market is shifting to slow growth, and labor market risks have become the focus of the Federal Reserve.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange tool shows that the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points with a 49% probability. At the same time, the US 2-year/10-year Treasury yield curve turned positive for the second time in 22 years, further exacerbating market concerns about a US recession.
Trump pledges to embrace 'industries of the future' such as cryptocurrency, artificial intelligence
In a public speech at the Economic Club of New York on Thursday, Donald Trump outlined his plans to reform the U.S. economy after his reelection, including cutting regulations and promoting the growth of domestic energy production. Trump also said he would adopt Elon Musk's suggestion to set up a government efficiency commission to audit federal government spending and identify waste, and offered to lead the commission.
At the same time, regarding the field of crypto assets, Trump said that if he is re-elected president, he will build the United States into the world's cryptocurrency capital and embrace "future industries" such as cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence.
BTC’s 30-day realized volatility climbed to 62%, exceeding the long-term average volatility of 58%.
Recently, BTC's 30-day realized volatility has climbed to 62%, exceeding the long-term average volatility of 58%. Historically, the duration of realized volatility exceeding 70% is very short, which often brings profit opportunities to traders who sell implied volatility at high levels. In contrast, volatility buying is only profitable when the realized volatility falls below 30%.
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Disclaimer: The market is risky and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can be extremely risky and unstable. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
