Is a rate cut necessarily a good thing? Let's review the trend after the last rate cut!

With the market falling again, it seems that all the friends have lower expectations for this rate cut. Although the rate cut will lead to a series of market measures, is it necessarily a good thing? Will there be a big rise before mid-September? Is there any bull market left?

Today, let's take a look at how the crypto market has performed after each rate cut, and whether there has been a surge! First of all, I can state my point of view very straightforwardly. Although the current price is still sluggish, for the cryptocurrency market, the rate cut must be treated as a positive, especially for this year's market environment, the rate cut is the final fuse.

Regarding the historical trend of Bitcoin (BTC) after the US rate cut, we can analyze it one by one from the following time periods: As shown in the figure, the red line is the rate cut, and the green line is the rate hike. We can see that the two years of rate hikes from 2018 to 2019 perfectly match the BTC bear market. When the interest rate hike cycle ended and the interest rate cut cycle came, BTC ushered in the last round of super bull market from 2019 to 2020.

In the figure, we take the most worthy reference period around 2020 as an example: July 2019 to March 2020: The Fed began to cut interest rates before the epidemic disturbance, and the price of BTC first fell from about 10,000 US dollars to 7,000 US dollars, and then rebounded to 10,000 US dollars. In 2028, affected by the epidemic, the Fed quickly cut interest rates and launched a large-scale quantitative easing policy. At this stage, after the 312 plunge, the price of BTC rose from about 5,000 US dollars to 65,000 US dollars.

Many people will say that the previous price has nothing to do with the Fed's interest rate hikes and cuts, but it should be noted that the interest rate cuts must be combined with the current market environment. At present, digital currencies such as BTC are traded as assets and have been recognized by the country, regulatory agencies, and ETFs.

The approval of ETFs was also a matter at the beginning of the year. Compared with previous interest rate hikes and cuts, the reference significance is actually not that great. On the contrary, for this bull market, the interest rate cut can be said to be the fuse that affects the global financial market and will ignite the cryptocurrency market. Whether you accept it or not, the current BTC is driven by macro events and liquidity, and this joint attribute must be positively correlated.#美联储何时降息？ $BTC