Bitcoin could break out of September’s historic crash this year as on-chain data and market trends suggest a potential breakout in BTC price with key levels to watch for a rebound.
Bitcoin prices have been volatile at the start of this week, hovering around $58,500 in early U.S. trading today. Historically, September has been a tough month for cryptocurrencies, with eight of the 11 years showing negative returns since 2013. However, recent market signals suggest that this trend could be reversing.
Can Bitcoin finally break out of its September downtrend and surge higher this month?
Can BTC price break out of September's bearish trend?
September has proven to be a challenging month for cryptocurrencies, which are often characterized by falling prices, according to Bitcoin historical data. According to CoinGlass, cryptocurrencies have only seen positive returns three times since 2013, in 2015, 2016 and 2023, with all other years seeing significant declines.
However, despite the bearish historical backdrop, some of the latest market trends suggest a possible shift in momentum.
On-chain data shows Bitcoin’s reversal trend
A report from on-chain analytics firm Santiment highlights encouraging signs of growth in the cryptocurrency market despite stagnant traditional markets. “Bitcoin is showing signs of growth independent of stocks, indicating strength in the sector,” the report states.
Decoupling from traditional financial markets could be critical for BTC prices, especially if the stock market remains depressed. Additionally, the cryptocurrency’s short-term Sharpe ratio is similar to levels seen in September-October 2023, suggesting a possible reversal.
Meanwhile, for those who are bullish, the decline in the Sharpe ratio could signal an impending recovery phase, while bearish traders could see it as a precursor to continued volatility. These different interpretations fuel speculation that Bitcoin could break out of its usual September slump.
Fed cuts rates to boost sentiment
The largest cryptocurrency by market cap, as well as broader financial markets, could benefit from the upcoming and most anticipated rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The U.S. central bank is expected to announce a 25 basis point cut in its policy rate in September, given recent stabilization in inflation data.
For context, lower interest rates typically boost market sentiment while increasing investor interest in risky assets such as cryptocurrencies. In other words, lower interest rates could shift market focus toward digital assets, potentially benefiting cryptocurrencies. That being said, the market is now eagerly awaiting the upcoming U.S. employment data this week to shed more light on the Fed’s upcoming stance.
Market panic and other uncertainties to consider
Growing fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) among traders could set the stage for a BTC price rebound. Increased bearish sentiment among traders could be a positive sign for Bitcoin’s short-term outlook, as extreme bearish sentiment often precedes market reversals.
This dynamic could help the cryptocurrency escape the September curse and surprise investors with a rebound. So, let’s take a look at the key levels for the flagship cryptocurrency.
Where will the BTC price go next?
As of writing, BTC price is up 3.44% at $59,367, notably, the cryptocurrency fell to a low of $57,136 in the past 24 hours, highlighting the volatile market conditions. Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) meanwhile rose 1% to $30.43 billion, indicating a positive market sentiment towards the cryptocurrency.
Additionally, a recent report showed an increase in BTC whale activity, with traders accumulating cryptocurrencies. This bodes well for future positive momentum for cryptocurrencies, while also signaling a potential rally in the future.
Meanwhile, recent analysis of Bitcoin’s price suggests that the cryptocurrency could rise in the coming days. Technical indicators and market trends suggest that the cryptocurrency could soon surge above $83,400 in a post-breakout rally.
However, in order for this momentum to materialize, the cryptocurrency could face potential downside pressure, which could provide investors with an opportunity to “buy the dip.”
In simple terms
Current on-chain data and market data indicate that BTC prices may break the curse of September this year. The Fed's rate cut is expected to boost market sentiment and benefit Bitcoin prices, and recent price analysis hints at key levels for potential future gains in Bitcoin. It is expected that a bullish trend in the short term may trigger a rise in recent days, and information such as whale hoarding also indicates optimism and interest in it. It is expected that with the arrival of rate cuts, BTC prices will rebound. #非农就业数据即将公布 #BTC走势分析 #BNBChainMemeCoin #美联储何时降息？
