Will Bitcoin fall back to $50,000 in September? These 5 positive factors can keep Bitcoin rising
It is said that September will be a weak month for cryptocurrencies. Despite this, I don’t think so for the following reasons:
1) Historically, September is usually a poor month for Bitcoin, with an average return of negative 4.78% and a loss probability of 72.7%. But not all Septembers are like this. There are also cases where there are positive returns in September after the decline in August.
2) Strong selling pressure has been cleared: In July and August 2024, there was a large-scale sell-off in the market due to events such as the German government’s sale of Bitcoin, Mt. Gox’s repayment of creditors, Genesis Trading’s debt restructuring, and government-confiscated crypto funds. As these selling pressures weaken, the possibility of a fall in Bitcoin prices in September decreases.
3) The strength of long-term holders: Long-term holders have accumulated a large amount of Bitcoin in the past 30 days, holding 75% of the total supply. Many large Bitcoin wallets are dormant, indicating that these holders do not intend to sell in the short term, providing a solid foundation for Bitcoin.
4) September rally for Bitcoin ETFs: After slightly negative inflows in August, Bitcoin ETFs are expected to see positive net inflows in September, possibly between $500 million and $1.5 billion.
5) Favorable macro environment: The expected Fed rate cuts, FTX's cash repayment to creditors, and the US election's support for cryptocurrencies could all have a positive impact on the Bitcoin market.
In summary, while September has historically been a challenge for Bitcoin, the outlook for Bitcoin in September 2024 may be more optimistic than historical data suggests, given the removal of major selling pressure in July and August.