Continuing the onchain analysis series Q4/2023

based on onchain data and option data temporarily ignores factors related to the macroeconomic situation.

Onchain data records the cumulative behavior of BTC over the past 6 months. During a period of 6 months, about 100k BTC was withdrawn from the exchange. However, in the short term, the most recent pump to the 28.5k range had about 15,000 BTC loaded onto the floor immediately after that, leading to a decline in price to the area close to 27k. The total amount of BTC reserves on the exchange has shown signs of a slight increase after receiving an additional 15,000BTC deposited when the price reached 28k5. However, they only sell a small part. During the period when the price went sideways around the 27k range, the total stablecoin reserves on the exchange increased dramatically again. Analyzing onchain behavior, it can be easily seen that after a large amount of BTC is pumped to distribute to higher price areas, repeating this behavior can push BTC to higher price areas above. where sell limit orders are waiting.

Option has recorded signs of the return of trading funds such as pro traders specifically through the fees in the expiry sessions on October 27, November 24 and December 29. After a long period of continuous price pressure to eliminate young fish, the market will become easier to coordinate than in Q3. The number of contracts opened in early October increased quite sharply. Along with positive sentiment, it has also gradually improved compared to Q3.

Personally, in my opinion, the market may have shown signs of a relatively stable recovery if the price on October 27 surpassed the 28k mark with the expectation of the trading fund that the year-end situation will improve significantly.