Based on historical data and current market conditions, we might expect the following:

1. Accumulation Phase: Smart money (institutions, big players, and savvy retail investors via ETFs) will likely continue to accumulate during this phase.

2. Potential Breakout Timing: If historical patterns hold true (as they often do in crypto markets), we could see a true bull market start in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025.

3. Short-term historical patterns: Historical data strongly supports the view that we are at a critical juncture. Take a look at Bitcoin’s monthly returns over the past decade:

The performance comparison between September and October matches almost perfectly with the typical transition from the “sideways/bear market” to the “bull market” phase after the halving. If this pattern holds true this year, we may see the current consolidation phase end in September, followed by a significant move higher in October.

The average return in September was -4.78% and the median was -5.58%, making it one of the worst-performing months in history.

By comparison, October had an average return of 22.90% and a median return of 27.70%, consistently one of the best-performing months.