Bitcoin Halving: History Won’t Repeat Exactly, But There Will Always Be Similarities

First, let’s talk about the main character of this idea: the Bitcoin halving. We just completed the fourth halving on April 19, 2024. Here’s a review of past halvings and what happened after they occurred:

November 28, 2012: Rewards dropped to 25 Bitcoins

July 9, 2016: Dropped to 12.5 Bitcoins

May 11, 2020: Cut to 6.25 Bitcoins

April 19, 2024: Now down to 3.125 Bitcoins

Now, things get even more fascinating. Let’s look at the price action during previous halvings:

First Halving - November 28, 2012

Price at Halving: ~$12

Sideways: ~1 year

Price at end of sideways: ~$100

Subsequent bull run high: ~$1,100 (November 2013)

Percentage increase from Halving to peak: ~9,000%

Second Halving - July 9, 2016

Price at Halving: ~$650

Sideways: ~0.5 - 1.5 years (depending on how you view the bull run)

Price at end of sideways: ~$1,000

Subsequent bull run high: ~$19,700 (December 2017)

Percentage increase from Halving to peak: ~2,930%

Third Halving - May 11, 2020

Price at Halving: ~ $8,600

Sideways: About 6 months

Price at end of sideways: About $10,000

Subsequent bull run high: About $69,000 (November 2021)

Percentage increase from halving to peak: About 702%

Current halving - April 19, 2024

Price at halving: About $64,000

Sideways: 5 months so far

The Great Sideways Theory: We’re in the middle of it

This is where my theory comes in. Because that’s exactly what we’re seeing right now: a sideways price action that is psychologically challenging for many investors.

Looking at the numbers, the pattern seems clear:

Initial Rise: We typically see a run-up in price before the halving.

The Great Sideways: After the halving, we enter a consolidation period of about 6 months.

The Breakout: After the sideways, the real bull run begins, leading to new all-time highs.