Market Trends
In the past week, BTC has generally shown an upward trend. With the clearer signal of interest rate cuts, BTC and US stocks rose on Friday. BTC broke through $64,000 and entered a narrow range of fluctuations over the weekend. Although BTC fell below the support level of $63,000 on the 27th, it immediately entered a rebound phase. As of the time of writing, the price of BTC fluctuated around $62,800. ETH has a relatively high volatility, with the largest increase of 11% and the largest decrease of 5.4% in the past week (the above data is from Binance spot, August 27th 15:00).
Market Analysis Hot Spots
BTC has rebounded more than 30% since hitting a low in August, and market risk appetite has returned
Although the recent rise of BTC is relatively weak compared with the US stock market, BTC has risen by more than 30% since it bottomed out at $49,053 in August. The market believes that the positive correlation between BTC and US stocks has increased. Based on the expectation of interest rate cuts and the reduction of market selling pressure (law enforcement agencies have basically completed the distribution of seized BTC, and the distribution of Mt. Gox's creditors is nearing completion), the market's risk appetite is obvious. At the same time, the market is bullish, but comprehensive data shows that investors are becoming more rational.
Powell released a signal of interest rate cut, and the market generally believed that the time for interest rate cut has come
On August 23, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the time has come for policy adjustment, and that he does not seek or welcome further cooling of the labor market, and that his confidence in inflation returning to 2% has increased.
The Wall Street Journal said that Powell sent the strongest signal of a rate cut so far, indicating that the Federal Reserve intends to take action to prevent further weakening of the U.S. labor market.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that the time has come to cut interest rates, but it is too early to judge the extent of the cut. The most likely scenario is that we will continue to see a gradual slowdown in inflation and a sustainable pace of labor market growth. If the economy develops as expected, it is reasonable to adjust policy at a normal pace. If the economy weakens more than expected, more aggressive measures will be needed.
U.S. Treasury tokenization market exceeds $2 billion
According to data from RWA monitoring platform RWA.xyz, as of August 25, the size of the U.S. Treasury tokenization market exceeded US$2 billion, of which BlackRock's BUIDL fund had a size of US$502 million, ranking first; Franklin Templeton's FOBXX fund had a size of US$425 million, ranking second.
Telegram founder arrested, TON ecosystem affected
On August 26, the founder of Telegram was arrested. The French prosecutor's office issued an official statement saying that he was arrested and detained for cybercrime investigations, and pointed out that "the detention restrictions taken by the police were extended on August 25, 2024, and the detention period can be extended to 96 hours (that is, until August 28). After the news of the arrest of the founder of Telegram was released, the TON ecosystem TVL rebounded after a sharp drop. The DOGS community and many other people such as Musk have expressed support for the founder of Telegram.
Suggested Layout
With the promotion of crypto regulation and related bills, the policy relevance of crypto assets is increasing. Although the expectation of interest rate cuts is good for risky assets, and the multiple positive factors of the US election and BTC halving are superimposed, the volatility of mainstream assets such as BTC is still at a high level. Diversifying assets and making rational investments are currently the best options.
The core-satellite strategy is suitable for most investors. Most of the funds are invested in stable cost-protected products, while a small portion of the funds are allocated to high-yield structured products (for example, 70%-80% of assets are selected for principal-protected products, and 20%-30% are selected for relatively high-risk and high-yield financial products). Through different product combinations, strategic investments are used to achieve returns in high-volatility markets and control investment risks.
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Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice, an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy to residents of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the United States, Singapore, and other countries or regions where such offers or solicitations may be prohibited by law. Digital asset trading may be extremely risky and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
