Last weekend, Powell made a shocking speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, clearly announcing that the FOMC will usher in the first interest rate cut in September! The market had generally expected a 25 basis point rate cut, but Powell's statement triggered the market's enthusiastic bets on a 50 basis point rate cut in September.
If economic data continues to improve this month, this clear promise of a rate cut will greatly boost market confidence, and mainstream cryptocurrencies are rebounding rapidly. However, as the trend resistance is approaching, the short-term trend is still full of great uncertainty.
This week, a number of key economic data will be released, and important figures will give speeches. The focus is still on the Fed's expectations of a rate cut in September. In addition, the dynamics of Russia's cryptocurrency bill cannot be ignored. The currency market is moving towards a bigger stage!
Is the arrest of TON founder a new black swan?
Last weekend, the crypto world was shocked by the news! Telegram founder Pavel was arrested in France. The TVL and coin price of TON ecosystem experienced a sharp drop. The panic spread. In the short term, without further explanation from the authorities, the market sentiment may be difficult to calm down!
TON, like X, is a staunch defender of freedom of speech, bringing infinite hope to people who desire openness, tolerance and freedom. However, Pavel’s detention in France this time may be due to the shadow of the long-arm jurisdiction of the United States!
Bitcoin struggled in a sideways trend yesterday, breaking through $65,000 in the early trading and then falling back to $64,000. Although the TON incident slightly dragged down the price of Bitcoin, the overall market sentiment remains strong!
Although Bitcoin showed a downward trend at the 4-hour level yesterday, there was almost no fluctuation throughout the day. This "sideways decline" trend usually indicates that there may be a big market in the future - just like the longer the spring is suppressed, the stronger the force will be after it is released!
As a new week begins, the trend remains bullish!
Bitcoin exploded over the weekend! Stimulated by Powell's dovish remarks, the price quickly broke through the resistance range of $61,000-62,000 and rushed to over $65,000, instantly igniting market confidence!
Currently, Bitcoin is priced at around $64,000, while ETH is hovering around $2,700.
The key pressure level of Bitcoin is $64,800-65,500-66,200, and the support level is $63,500-63,000-62,000. The pressure level of ETH is $2,800-2,880-2,950, and the support level is $2,700-2,640-2,580.
Unless a black swan event occurs, the possibility of a sharp drop is extremely low. After a long period of adjustment, the market is ready to go. Long orders at low levels are worth paying attention to, and you can try pin operations!
The next focus is whether Bitcoin can break through the $70,000 mark. If it successfully holds this position, the real bull market will kick off! The explosive market in Q4 is already brewing, and the market climax is about to come!
This week's major economic events
NVIDIA's financial report is about to be released! NVIDIA, the global AI chip giant, will release its latest quarterly financial report after the market closes on the 28th, Eastern Time.
Can it break market expectations again and deliver an amazing report card that exceeds expectations? Nvidia's financial report will set off a new round of shocks in the AI and technology sectors! In the past 10 quarters, Nvidia has performed well, with revenue exceeding expectations for 7 consecutive quarters and exceeding market expectations for 9 quarters. We look forward to whether it can set a new record this time!
Focus economic data coming: US second quarter GDP revision and PCE price index! ** The US second quarter GDP revision will be released on the evening of the 29th, Taiwan time, and the PCE price index will be announced on the 30th! These data will become the key basis for examining whether the US economy is hiding signs of recession and whether inflation continues to cool down.
These important news will directly affect the Fed’s decision on the extent of interest rate cuts in September and in the future, and a market storm is about to break out!
Why are the next few months considered a golden period?
The first focus: The liquidity effect of interest rate cuts will not be immediately apparent! Interest rate cuts are a gradual process, and the gradual reduction of interest rates and the transmission of policies require time. However, interest rate cuts mean a change in policy direction, and the market's expectations for abundant liquidity in the future are heating up. This expectation is extremely valuable, and it will remain at a high level in the next few months!
The second focus: The economic recession has not really come yet! Economic indicators such as unemployment rate and non-farm data are still within controllable range, and there is no substantial evidence to show the arrival of recession. Judging from Powell's speech, the Fed is cleverly guiding the market to maintain this optimistic expectation.
The third focus: potential variables in the US election - Trump's comeback! In the coming months, the market will be filled with increasing expectations for monetary easing, concerns about recession have not yet taken shape, and finally Trump's political dynamics will affect the market trend!
Overall, the market is looking forward to the expectation of liquidity injection, and is worried that the shadow of recession has not yet appeared. Trump’s political drama will add more variables to the future situation!
What's the matter with the copycats? Is the copycat season coming?
This month, the trading logic of the financial market has completely changed, especially after Powell’s speech, the future direction of the market has become clearer!
Gold broke through its historical high, the U.S. dollar index fell like a meteor; the Russell 2000** soared rapidly; crypto altcoins continued to surge... Wood's ARKK may be gathering momentum, and I boldly predict that it will soar soon!
Why does the market fluctuate so dramatically? The answer is simple and profound: "the liquidity that will overflow in the future." One sentence can reveal the truth - when the Fed's policy changes, global risk assets will usher in a comprehensive rise!
If Bitcoin challenges the $70,000 mark again, I think the probability of a breakthrough this time is extremely high! After all, the market environment has undergone major changes, and the future market is unstoppable!
Choose altcoins according to the times
The current market is turbulent, and the focus is on the hot spots and news that are about to be revealed, which may very well become the super catalyst for the next round of market conditions!
For example, Nvidia’s financial report to be released this week is expected to ignite the AI sector, and may drive related currencies such as LUNA, USTC, and VGX to soar!
At the same time, some small-cap altcoins that have not yet seen a significant increase are also worth paying attention to, as the time for market rotation is coming. Coins like LINA, COMBO, BEL, PERP, GTC, and OGN, which have exploded in the past, are likely to shine again and present a new round of opportunities!
Currently, Bitcoin and ETH are fluctuating in a range, and most altcoins fluctuate with the market. The trend remains unchanged, and it is a wise choice to continue holding spot coins!
Recently, we have clearly seen that some altcoins are eager to make efforts and frequently make trouble! Each time they rise by dozens of points or even double in a day, although most of them are small-cap coins, the market heat is still high. In the near future, we will recommend more high-quality coins worth paying attention to in the group!
Altcoins generally rebounded over the weekend, and coupled with the continued rise of the broader market, this will undoubtedly drive the altcoin market to soar.
Recently, altcoins are experiencing a great opportunity to operate! The most important thing is to invest in high-quality coins:
- Bitcoin ecosystem-related currencies, seize the opportunity of the big pie!
- Top meme coin, taking off with the internet craze!
- Classic DeFi track, tapping into the potential of established projects!
- RWA (real assets), explore the new blue ocean of wealth in the future!
Currently recommended holdings include: ETH, SOL, ORDI, SATS, OP, WIF, BOME, BONK, STX, WLD, API3. These currencies are on the eve of potential explosion and deserve special attention!
For secondary band currencies, you should operate flexibly according to your personal profit, and learn to enter and exit the band operation at the right time! Remember: you must keep a part of the funds as floating funds, and don't hold a full position, so that you can cope with the ever-changing market!
Now is the golden time to make arrangements, seize the opportunity of swing trading and take your investment portfolio to the next level!
Okay, that’s all the information for this issue for now.
