#4 Indicators for judging bull and bear markets are very useful for us small investors, and it is recommended to collect them.
How far has the bull market progressed? This is very important for investors. At this point, the most important thing is to sell well.
Indicator 1: Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score MVRV Z-Score is an important market indicator used to measure the relative valuation of Bitcoin. It is the current market value/realized value (the sum of the prices of each BTC last transferred). When the Z-score (orange line) enters the pink area, it usually indicates the top of the market cycle; when it enters the green area, it means that the price of Bitcoin is seriously undervalued.
Current position: There is still a long way to go to the pink area, but don’t worry, a big bull market is waiting for us ahead.
Keep an eye on https://bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/mvrv-zscore/…
Indicator 2: Rainbow Chart The rainbow chart is a long-term valuation tool for Bitcoin. It uses a logarithmic growth curve to predict the potential future price direction of Bitcoin. The yellow and red colors above the rainbow chart indicate that the market may be overheated and suitable for selling.
Current position: There is still a long way to go before yellow, not to mention orange and red. The last time we reached the orange position was in April and November 2021.
Keep an eye on https://coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/bitcoin-rainbow-chart…
Indicator 3: Fear and Greed Index The behavior of the cryptocurrency market is very emotional. Extreme fear (0-20) is suitable for buying, and extreme greed (80-100) is suitable for selling. I reviewed the chart and found that the period of extreme greed this year was around February 28th to April 2nd. I looked at my position table and found that the position price was indeed the highest during that period.
Current position: 56, which is in the middle of the sentiment, once again confirming that the current stage is a transitional period before the bull market breaks out.
Keep an eye on https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
Indicator 4: Puell Multiplier Puell Multiplier = Miner Revenue (Market Cap of Newly Issued Bitcoins) / 365-day Moving Average Miner Revenue When the Puell Multiplier enters the red zone, it indicates that miner revenue is significantly higher than historical standards, and at this time the Bitcoin price Often reaches high points.
Current position: 0.9, which is still a long way from the high point of 3.4 in the last bull market. Just wait for the bull market with peace of mind.
Keep an eye on https://bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/puell-multiple/…
Summary: Judging bull and bear markets cannot be based on a single indicator. It requires a combination of multiple indicators, including RHODL Ratio, LTH/STH realized market capitalization ratio, Nine Gods indicators, 200-week moving average heat map, etc. I chose four that suit me, and also took into account the characteristics of this round, such as the passing of the US spot ETF, which can continue to inject capital into the cryptocurrency market, the 25bps interest rate cut in mid-September, the 100bps positive expectations within the year, and the superposition of halving. The next step is to wait patiently for the bull market. There may be twists and turns in the middle, but the worst is over.
