Everyone is talking about Powell's speech. I actually think that what he said this time is not very important. The rate cut in September, although it cannot be said to be 100%, is 99%. There is no suspense.

The suspense is whether the rate cut will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points. The market expects a 25 basis point cut.

If the rate cut is 50 basis points, it means that the Fed predicts that the economy is about to decline, so it needs to increase the intensity of rate cuts to stimulate the economy. If such a reversal occurs, there will be some negative impact in the short term. If the rate cut is 25 basis points, it is in line with expectations and may be positive in the short term.

However: Powell is unlikely to directly say a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut, and he should give a clear signal that the rate cut is about to take place. In this case, there should be a small wave of small positives in the short term