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Galaxy Securities: The Fed will cut interest rates 2 to 3 times, with a cumulative 50-75BP being appropriate
Galaxy Securities Research Report stated that considering that US consumption will not stall significantly in the second half of 2024 under the support of wages and other income, investment will still be suppressed by high interest rates, fiscal expansion will continue to support the economy, and the overall unemployment rate will continue to rise, the Fed will cut interest rates 2 to 3 times, with a cumulative 50-75BP being appropriate, and the difference in the actual impact of two or three rate cuts on the economy is limited.
At the same time, there is no need for a single 50BP rate cut under the economic resilience this year, and market expectations are still slightly optimistic. As the Fed shifts its focus to the labor market, and the unemployment rate further rises while the economy remains resilient in the short term, the market may continue to focus on "rate cut trading", and the weakening of labor and investment data may lead to periodic interspersed decay trading, and the short-term downward trend of US Treasury yields and the US dollar index continues to be supported.
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