Rising as expected! ! Bitcoin returns to above 61,000
After the opening of the US stock market overnight, the market first faked a fall to lure short sellers. After 0:00, the bulldozer rising mode was started, and the highest reached around 61,800 at around 4:00. In the analysis of the previous few days, we were mainly bullish. Although it rose as expected, this wave of rise has not yet ended. When the leeks who are late to the party get on board, it will fall.
Yesterday we analyzed the intraday pressure level of 61500. If you have placed short orders here, you are now profitable and have not been hit by stop loss. Currently, you have made a small profit of about 600 points. But don't be greedy. The price won't fall much here. Remember to stop when you are ahead. If you really want to be greedy, set a break-even loss. If it rebounds again, you will not lose money, and you will make a lot of money if it falls.
Back to today's analysis: From the K-line, the 1-hour level is a downward trend, and the 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily levels are upward trends. The intraday pressure level is 62759 and the support level is 59027.
Has the market logic changed? "What has changed is that the logic of children playing house has become the logic of fighting a war and killing others."
The non-farm payrolls data was revised down without any reaction. We will continue to pay attention to the most critical meeting in the world on Friday! Yesterday, the non-farm payrolls data was revised down sharply by 81.8w. The market was relatively calm, which is not surprising:
First, the market had already priced in a sharp downward revision of the non-farm payrolls;
Second, the statistical time of data is lagging;
Third, a weak labor market will only increase the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will aggressively cut interest rates.
Once this data is released, it seems to be paving the way for a rate cut. So we should continue to pay attention to the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting on Friday, and the most important thing to pay attention to is the keynote speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at 10 pm on August 23.
Some netizens said that the key to maintaining market sentiment is not Powell’s remarks, but his tone. According to past rules:
If you start your speech with hello everyone, it will skyrocket;
If you start your speech with "good morning", it will plummet;
If you have a dark face, you can buy it without thinking. You can wait and see!
The rate cut in September is expected to happen, but the Fed will probably repeat the mistakes made in the early days of rate hikes. It wants a soft landing but it is difficult to grasp the strength, resulting in a slow response. It is not that the Fed's expectation management is not good, but the nature of the bureaucracy determines that the policy is destined to be patched only when problems arise. So if you want to see the magnificent situation of the surging tide in the cryptocurrency circle, you probably have to wait a little longer!
Watching gold continue to consolidate above the historic high of $2,500, gold's breakthrough of the key resistance level in 12 years, coupled with the employment data that has just been significantly revised down and the shadow of the US economic recession, undoubtedly sent the strongest and most severe warning signal to everyone!
When BTC broke upward, everyone laughed and said it was just the logic of a risky asset.
Huang Jin issued a warning, and the laughter suddenly quieted down. There was complete silence, and the air froze. Turning around, I saw that the smartest students, Buffett, Soros, and even Huang Renxun, had already quietly slipped out while everyone was laughing.
Everyone was silent. With so many people left and such a small door, if they all ran together, they would definitely not be able to escape. So a thousand people were quickly thinking of a thousand smart-assed scripts. The last time, in October 2007, gold broke through the 1.5-year key level and continued to hit new historical highs. Later, the US financial crisis, the global financial tsunami, and the economy fell sharply.
Going back further, in the 1970s, after the Nixon shock, from 1972 to 1978, gold prices continued to break new highs, followed by destructive inflation of 12-15%.
War is not a dinner party. Similarly, economics is not a child's play. Real interest rate = nominal interest rate - actual inflation rate (don't scold me, I can't scold you anyway)
The actual inflation rate is the speed of value destruction. Everyone is forced to race against it. The nominal interest rate is the arrogance and delirium of the visible hand. The visible hand cannot raise the nominal interest rate indefinitely. So at a certain point, the nominal interest rate can no longer be raised, and even forced to be lowered, and the real interest rate turns negative.
No matter what the nominal inflation rate is, it is just an attempt to cover up the truth.
When real interest rates are positive, people will flock to debt (essentially leverage) in pursuit of higher returns (essentially a transfer of value to others, i.e. “harvesting”).
When the real interest rate is negative, people will flock to value storage, pursuing basic value preservation (in essence) and value appreciation (relative to the nominal legal currency value). This may be the underlying truth of so-called wealth.
Has the boat passed through thousands of mountains? Or is Wumeng Mountain connected to other mountains?
The market is still in the shock stage
Don't just chase after the price of pie when you see it rising.
Be rational
The second phase of the bull market is still brewing.
