At 6 o'clock in the morning yesterday, Bitcoin suddenly surged, breaking through 2W8 in one fell swoop, reaching a maximum of around 28,600.
Many people started to call Niuhui again and started to watch more than 3W movies.
Then it fell back to 2W8 at night, and I felt that the surrounding environment suddenly became much quieter.
At present, this wave of decline has reached the lowest point around 27,300 and has temporarily stabilized
Then my conclusion is that this wave of decline is not over yet.
First, let’s take a look at the reasons for this rise
I searched a lot of information during the day yesterday.
I think the only defensible reason at present is that the U.S. government does not need to shut down for the time being.
This news is emotionally positive for the risk market.
The news came out on the weekend, when the U.S. stock market was not open.
So Bitcoin didn’t react much at that time.
When the three major U.S. stock index futures opened in the early hours of Monday morning, they jumped short and rose.
Bitcoin just followed suit and surged.
Let’s not talk about whether the U.S. government not shutting down will have substantial positive effects on U.S. stocks.
But it can be seen from the fact that Bitcoin did not react immediately after the news came out.
At the very least, this news is not really good for Bitcoin.
Then it is obvious that the main force behind the rise of Bitcoin is to liquidate short positions.
And using the emotional side to deliberately pull a wave
This can be seen from the market capitalization data of several major stablecoins.
At present, the funds in the currency market are still in a state of continuous outflow
A bull market requires real money. At least under the premise of this kind of capital outflow, there is no bull market.
After talking about the logic, let's take a look at the K-line
If divided according to the shock range I have been talking about before,
At the very least, this wave has broken through the lower shock range.
But it is still within the large shock range of 2W8.
Generally speaking, after a false breakout of the upper edge of the shock range, there is a high probability that it will return to the lower edge of the shock range.
At present, the decline that started last night has not been directly brought back to its original shape.
At least it remains above 2W7
Therefore, if Bitcoin wants to continue to rise, it needs a prerequisite
That is, it cannot fall below 26800
If it goes back below 26800, then 2W5 will be just around the corner.
So from an operational perspective,
If you are a bull, you still have certain expectations for the market outlook.
Then we can only rely on going long near 2W7.
Leave the market if it falls below 26800
So if you are short, and like me and my friends in the group, you were short above 2W8 yesterday.
Then you can take your short order first and don’t be too anxious to sell it.
The price of Bitcoin only has the value of shorting starting from 2W8
