Although Bitcoin price has yet to reclaim its March all-time high (ATH), one analyst claims two key metrics show the bull market remains strong and stable with no signs of a deep correction.

In an August 18 report, CryptoQuant researcher Axel Adler looked at two key metrics — bubble versus crash market structure and the ratio between market cap and realized cap and market cap standard deviation (MVRV-Z score) — as signals that Bitcoin’s current price action is on a healthy path forward. Adler added:

“We can see that the current bull cycle is developing quite steadily without any significant anomalies or jumps.”

There is no Bitcoin bubble

Adler highlighted that the bubble-to-crash market structure has dropped to 1.02, which he considers a “baseline,” suggesting that Bitcoin is not currently experiencing a bubble.

A bubble forms in the market when Bitcoin’s market capitalization “grows faster” than its actual capitalization. When Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $73,679, the indicator signaled a bubble, with a score of around 1.5.

Less than a week later, the price plummeted 16% to $61,930, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin is still struggling to hold the key $60,000 level that traders have recently considered a pivotal point. Since July 22, Bitcoin has traded in a 40% range, between a low of $49,842 and a high of $69,799.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $59,236.

Adler also noted that the 30-day moving average (MA) of Bitcoin’s MVRV-Z score is 1.8, slightly above the yearly average of 1.6, indicating “overvaluation at a minimum.”

When the 30-day MVRV-Z MA spikes, it can be a sign to traders that the asset is overvalued and may be due for a correction.

In March 2021, Bitcoin's 30-day MVRV-Z MA was above 5 before Bitcoin hit a high of $60,701. However, just three months later, BTC fell 45% to $32,827 in July.

Source: CryptoQuant

Both the bubble vs. bust market structure and the MVRV-Z score are metrics used to assess whether Bitcoin can be considered “overvalued.”

“As long as this figure does not reach extreme levels that would signal significant risk of a correction, the market is considered bullish.”

Several traders have commented on Bitcoin's prolonged consolidation in recent times.

“We are in the boring phase. This phase occurs before and after the halving,” anonymous trader Ash Crypto wrote in an X post on Aug. 20.

Source: Ash Crypto

Meanwhile, anonymous trader Rekt Capital added that Bitcoin is “on track to reclaim the post-halving Reaccumulation Range,” suggesting that prices could move higher in the coming months.

Source: Rekt Capital



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