Who doesn’t love a good guess made in public?
The problem with predictions is that when you’re right, it’s a coincidence, and when you’re wrong, people make fun of you.
I don’t dabble in predictions.
That said, we can set some realistic expectations, can’t we?
The months ahead From an on-chain perspective, the market’s starting to rebuild the foundation it lost earlier this year. Let’s look only at #Bitcoin Wherever Bitcoin goes, the rest of the market always follows. We can use Bitcoin to get a sense of what we can expect in the next few months.
New address growth has ticked up after trending downward for most of the year.
Among the cohorts of existing wallets larger than .1 BTC, we see growth too.
Stablecoins continue to rise.
I won’t go into charts and analysis of Holders and various other metrics and trading charts. Suffice to say, nature is healing and we’re seeing healthy churn among market participants.
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
We still see plenty of selling from OGs and entities that hold a lot of Bitcoins.
We also don’t know how much overhang remains from miners who shut off this summer and recipients of Bitcoins from Mt. Gox, a defunct crypto exchange that recently gave billions of dollars in Bitcoins to old users.
More importantly, I don’t see new sources of inflows in any of the data I look at, and I have heard nothing from my contacts that suggests such inflows should come soon.
So what does that mean?
The market will continue to move sideways and down until it breaks this trendline. Once Bitcoin’s price shifts trend, it won’t take much to send the market higher, especially if we still see the trends and behaviors.
Doesn’t matter. If you know the destination. That’s enough!!
