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This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute:
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Golden Egg Diary @jindanriji; Elk will not get lost @crypto_elk_; Forex Brother; Xibei @Asterismone;
Weekly Review
This week, from September 25 to October 2, the highest price of Sugar Orange was around $28,430 and the lowest price was close to $25,990, with a fluctuation range of about 9.39%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chips traded around 26770, which will provide certain support or pressure.
analyze:
26,000–31,000: approximately 4.16 million pieces;
20000~25000: about 1.8 million pieces;
The probability of not falling below 24,000 to 26,000 in the short term is 79%;
The probability that the price will not rise below 32,000-34,000 in the short term is 65%.
Important news
Economic News
Lloyd Blankfein, former CEO of Goldman Sachs, said: The interest rate of 5.5% is too high, the inflation rate may be below 3%, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates earlier than expected, and a recession is still unlikely within 1 day.
Goldman Sachs believes that the Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates by 25 basis points next year, Bank of America believes it will be 50-75 basis points; JPMorgan Chase believes it will be cut by 80 basis points; Morgan Stanley believes it will be cut by 100 basis points.
Interest rate futures contracts show that there is about a 50% chance that the Federal Reserve will tighten further for the rest of this year, with interest rates set to fall to 4.65% by the end of next year, a cut of 85 basis points.
Citi said that the liquidity depletion in the financing market has basically ended, and the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase (RRP) tool will offset or even exceed the scale of bond issuance by the US Treasury, thereby increasing liquidity.
The scale of use of the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase tool has dropped to 14.28 trillion US dollars and is expected to drop to around 1 trillion US dollars by the end of the year, injecting liquidity into the market.
Encrypted ecological news
Weekly trading volume of top exchanges fell below $400 billion again last week
MicroStrategy purchased 5,445 Bitcoins for $147 million
Binance Japan and Mitsubishi UFJ Trust Bank have reached a cooperation agreement to issue Japanese yen stablecoins by the end of 2024
Binance sells its Russian operations to CommEX
Global Payment Processing Giant MoneyGram to Launch Non-Custodial Crypto Wallet
The US SEC postpones the decision time of VanEck and Ark 21Shares spot Ethereum ETF, but will accelerate the launch of Ethereum futures ETF
Crypto trading platform Kraken plans to offer stock trading services in the UK and the US
Bernstein, a long-established Wall Street asset management company, said in a research report: On the BTC spot ETF, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will not "fabricate another reason for rejection", but will take a middle road and accept the supervision agreement with Coinbase.
The Federal Reserve released a report titled “Tokenization: Overview and Financial Stability Implications” which aims to provide background on tokenization and discuss its potential benefits as well as financial stability risks.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
On-chain spot selling pressure
Exchange Position Status
(The picture below shows the on-chain spot selling pressure)
Spot selling pressure reached its lowest point in 8 years.
Currently, there is almost no selling pressure on the spot market, which has reached the lowest level in history. The market pressure is the easiest in 8 years.
It's so easy that only a little bit of purchasing power is needed to squeeze the market upward.
(The following figure shows the exchange position status)
Participants are still actively hoarding coins, but the corresponding frequency and amount of hoarding have begun to decline.
The amount of coins on the exchange is also at its lowest level in several years.
The active coin hoarding behavior has occurred in the last two months.
The market has now reached its lowest selling point in eight years, and buying and hoarding are still proceeding silently.
If the market remains like this, an upward squeeze could occur in the next 1-2 quarters.
Mid-term exploration
Short-Term Profit Percentage Compounding Model
Ratio of long-term to short-term participants
Exchange futures leverage ratio
Exchange Trend Net Position
Positive sentiment on the Internet
Purchasing power difference
(The figure below shows the short-term profit percentage compound model)
From a medium-term perspective, short-term participants are in a relatively hesitant position, and the direction of increase or decrease is not very clear, but overall the pace of reduction has been temporarily stopped at this stage. Perhaps in the constant baptism, the mid-term rhythm of the market will temporarily stabilize.
The accumulation group is still growing, the pace of hoarding coins remains unchanged, and the medium- and long-term fundamentals remain relatively positive.
However, the growth rate has slowed down, and the overall rhythm may also be adjusted. The market as a whole needs time to gain more space.
Therefore, the problem of liquidity loss has been temporarily alleviated in the short term.
(The figure below shows the ratio of long-term to short-term participants)
From the perspective of the proportion of participants,
The proportion of participants with a holding period of 6 months-2 years is currently greater than that of participants with a holding period of 1-3 months.
Perhaps the overall tone has returned to a relatively conservative level, with the proportion of longer-term participants growing and short-term participants losing out.
Of course, the reaction in the market needs to take into account the selling pressure situation.
Drill down to see position changes in on-exchange balances.
(Figure below shows the trend of net positions on exchanges)
In the trend net position, the current situation is still in a relatively weak accumulation state.
Perhaps overall it is still in a state of accumulation at a slower pace.
(Figure below: Network sentiment positivity)
On-chain activity is still growing at a slower pace, and a relative medium-term trend may be forming.
If the current trend does not encounter significant selling pressure in the medium term, or rapid selling pressure due to weakened liquidity, the secondary market may perform well in the next 1-2 months.
(Purchasing power difference in the figure below)
Purchasing power has weakened slightly, which may have some impact in the near future.
Taking into account the enthusiasm on the chain, the buyer's power may be relatively weakened at present, but there is still a certain degree of activity overall.
Short-term observation
Derivatives Risk Factor
Option intention transaction ratio
Derivatives Trading Volume
Option Implied Volatility
Profit and loss transfer
New addresses and active addresses
Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange
Net position of the Auntie Exchange
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net positions
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: Risk factor is in the danger zone, risk is increasing
(The figure below shows the risk factor of derivatives)
As prices rise, the risk factor has fallen back to the danger zone.
Although the room for continued price increases may be limited if we only look at the risk factor, since there is no large-scale short squeeze at present, even if the risk of derivatives increases, the price may continue to break through and form a large-scale short squeeze.
(The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio)
Options trading volume has dropped significantly, and the proportion of put options has dropped moderately compared with last week and is currently at a median level.
(Figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
Although prices have risen, the current derivatives trading volume has not fluctuated much and remains at a low level, indicating that most derivatives traders are currently in a wait-and-see state.
(The figure below shows the implied volatility of options)
Option implied volatility rose slightly and option traders' activity increased slightly.
Emotional state rating: Neutral
(The following figure shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
In the past few weeks, market sentiment has been in a neutral to cold state. This week, the positive sentiment of the market has risen slightly with the rise in prices, and the panic sentiment is still at a low level.
The current price has reached the cost range of short-term holders. This week, we will continue to focus on market panic represented by loss transfer volume.
(Figure below shows newly added addresses and active addresses)
This week, the number of newly added addresses dropped significantly, and the number of active addresses also dropped slightly.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: The overall outflow is accumulated and the selling pressure is low.
(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
The pie is currently in a state of small outflow.
(The following figure shows the net position of E-Tai Exchange)
E is currently in a state of slight inflow.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
There is no high-weight selling pressure at present.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has recovered slightly, and stablecoin purchasing power has recovered slightly.
(Figure below shows the global purchasing power status)
Currently, purchasing power in the three continents has rebounded, with Asia's purchasing power rebounding the most.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDC exchanges)
USDC is currently showing a small amount of inflow.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDT exchanges)
USDT is currently showing a small inflow.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 26,000; there is a willingness to sell at 30,000.
(The following figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 23,000, 24,000, and 25,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 30,000, 31,000, and 32,000.
(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 24,000, 25,000, and 26,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 28000, 29000, 30000 and 31000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to buy at prices around 24,000 and 25,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 30,500.
This week’s summary:
Summary of news:
The crypto fund management industry is currently worth about $45-50 billion, and with the approval of ETFs, capital expectations, hype, etc., it has the potential to exceed $500 billion in five years. These demands will come from investment advisors, wealth and private banking products, as well as the ability to easily access BTC ETFs in direct brokerage accounts.
It will indirectly cause a leverage amplification effect of two to three times, which means that there is room for capital inflows to expand the current market value by 2-3 times.
In terms of encryption policy, reports released by European and American countries, such as the Federal Reserve, are actively building and laying the foundation for the encryption policy environment.
Technology:
The tide of the times has also reached a turning point, with technology companies led by Open Ai driving industrial development.
In a century, few individuals or corporate organizations can directly drive the development of industries and times. This is quite a great feat.
With the latest grayscale test of the GPT4 small v visual version being revealed to have completed training in 2022, we can basically expect the multimodal support of GPT5 (perhaps with another name) within the next year.
It may change the auxiliary creation in education, engineering, sports rehabilitation, design and painting, and other fields.
At the same time, Apple’s AR will be released within a year, and the encrypted ETF is likely to be approved with a high probability.
If WEB3 changes the world's new financial order and organizational form, then AI and AR change the world's new way of generation and interaction.
The prototype of all this will come in the next 1-5 years.
At the same time, on the financial and economic side, as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates next year and the year after, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will turn and decline, and the anchor of asset pricing will also shift again.
The market style will face a new transformation.
You have your plans, the world has others.
The future may witness the birth of a new era and the beginning of new history.
On-chain long-term insights:
The spot selling pressure in the market has reached its lowest point in 8 years;
The hoarding behavior and potential purchasing power have continued to advance quietly over the past two months.
Market setting:
The current selling pressure in the market is very low, and only very slight buying volume is needed to squeeze the market upward.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
Short-term participants have entered a lingering (non-loss) phase, and short-term liquidity pressure may be temporarily alleviated.
The current pace has slowed down, and the proportion of longer-term participants has increased relative to short-term ones.
The market is still in a weak accumulation state.
On-chain activity is slowly increasing.
Purchasing power is relatively weakened.
Market setting:
slow
On-chain activity has increased in the medium term, but the pace is slow and purchasing power needs to be restored.
At the same time, if there is no rapid selling pressure, there may be a trend in the next 1-2 months.
On-chain short-term observations:
The risk factor is in the danger zone and the risk is increasing.
The number of newly added active addresses is at a median level, and the on-chain activity is average.
Market sentiment status rating: Neutral.
The overall net position of the exchange showed an accumulated outflow state, with low selling pressure.
Global purchasing power has recovered slightly, and stablecoin purchasing power has recovered slightly.
Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at the 26,000 price level, and a willingness to sell at the 30,000 price level.
The probability that the price will not fall below 24,000-26,000 in the short term is 79%; the probability that the price will not rise below 32,000-34,000 in the short term is 65%.
Market setting:
Market sentiment was neutral, changing from the previous cold tone. Short-term market positive sentiment increased slightly.
Strategic suggestion: Wait for the price to rise further before dynamic hedging
risk warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
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