The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting is about to begin. I found a picture showing the performance of the S&P during the previous annual meetings! Starting from Powell in 2018, except for 2022, the S&P performed well during the Hall Central Bank Annual Meeting, which means that the Hall Central Bank Annual Meeting is good news for the US stock market, or not bad news.

Powell did not speak at the annual meeting before 2018, so the period before 2018 can be ignored. In addition, 2022 is a special year. Due to anti-inflation reasons, Powell's speech at the annual meeting in 2022 was the shortest and most hawkish, so that the Federal Reserve was in a state of more hawks than doves throughout the year! Compared with the current macroeconomic environment in 2024, the Federal Reserve has made great progress in fighting inflation, so Powell's speech at the meeting this time cannot be said to be non-dovish, at least not too hawkish!

Anyway, that's what it means. Several central bankers get together to talk about monetary policy and its effectiveness and transmission. The key points are probably the same: 2% inflation target, not letting the economy go into recession while reaching the target, balanced job market, whether rising unemployment will promote recession, why unemployment is rising while layoffs are still low? Is there any evidence to prove it? What about rate cuts? That's about it. #杰克逊霍尔年会 $BTC