This edition of Top of Mind witha 10x Researchexamines Bitcoin’s growing political influence and its performance in U.S. presidencies. We take a look at Bitcoin’s strong trends in the run-up to the election, its potential impact on the 2024 election, and how rising prices are turning skeptics into advocates.
Bitcoin Politics
DR
As Bitcoin’s price surges, former skeptics like Michael Saylor and Larry Fink have become vocal advocates. Bitcoin has thrived under three U.S. presidents, and the 2025 election has the potential to be pivotal, with candidates now embracing it. Historically, Bitcoin has performed well in pre-election years, and 2024 has continued that trend. The 2024 election, shaped by key events like the debate and the Trump assassination attempt, could have a significant impact on Bitcoin, but its history suggests it will continue to thrive regardless of the election outcome.
As Bitcoin’s price continues to rise, more skeptics are becoming ardent supporters. One of the most notable converts is MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor, who has become one of the largest corporate holders of Bitcoin. Others, such as BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and former US President Donald Trump, initially questioned Bitcoin’s potential but later emerged as vocal supporters. Born out of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, Bitcoin has thrived under three US presidents: Democrat Barack Obama (2009-2017), Republican Donald Trump (2017-2021), and Democrat Joe Biden (2021-present). Its growth has transcended political parties, but the 2025 US presidential election marks a significant moment, with at least one candidate explicitly positioning himself as the “Bitcoin President.”
Bitcoin in pre-election years (average performance of 2012, 2016 and 2020)
Pre-election years have historically been crucial for Bitcoin. Over the past three cycles, Bitcoin returned +155% in 2012, +121% in 2016, and +301% in 2020 — averaging a return of +192%. These gains typically coincide with increased fiscal stimulus and a surge in liquidity as the incumbent president seeks to shore up support, especially when re-election is at stake. In 2024, Bitcoin delivered a +42% return, following the trend of bullish pre-election years. While this year’s returns are slightly lagging, Bitcoin historically accelerates toward the end of the year, suggesting that the best may be yet to come.
Bitcoin’s trajectory is now closely intertwined with the U.S. election cycle. Following the Biden-Trump debate on June 29, 2024, Trump’s chances of winning the presidency increased, especially after surviving an assassination attempt on July 13, 2024, and selecting J.D. Vance, a Bitcoin proponent, as his running mate. This series of events propelled Bitcoin to $70,000. However, the momentum hit a snag when Joe Biden, facing increasingly slim odds, withdrew from the race on July 21, 2024.
Kamala Harris has been sworn in as Biden’s surrogate, but she has not publicly endorsed Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies. While some polls suggest Harris has a more substantial chance of winning, the impact on Bitcoin will likely be shaped by the September 10, 2024 debate between Harris and Trump. The impact on Bitcoin will likely be shaped by this pivotal moment in US politics.
However, as Bitcoin’s history demonstrates, it thrives regardless of which party controls the White House, as long as prices continue to rise, turning skeptics into believers. The 2017 decision to cap Bitcoin’s block size solidified its status as digital gold, and both presidential candidates are likely to continue stimulating the economy, which could reinforce Bitcoin’s role as a store of value. With fiscal deficits expected to grow under the next administration, more people may recognize how Bitcoin has evolved from a peer-to-peer payment system to a reliable store of value.
Bitcoin surged in anticipation of the 2016 election when Trump was first elected, but the real breakthrough came in 2017 after he took office, with Bitcoin experiencing a tremendous rally. If Trump wins again, the question remains: can Bitcoin replicate this success under a president who openly supports him? Only time will tell, but Bitcoin could emerge as a winner no matter who prevails in the November 5, 2024 presidential election.
Bitcoin during Trump's first year in office in 2017
