[Sats chain analysis shows that the accumulation of chips is more obvious than ordi, and the chips are more interactive]
1. Exchange data analysis
Judging from the on-chain holdings, Binance holds the vast majority of centralized exchanges.
From the perspective of Binance exchange, 625T was held on March 1, and 923T was held on August 19.
From bybit trading: 3T held on March 1, and 19T held on August 19
Therefore, it is very obvious that in the past six months of adjustments, a large number of sats on the chain have been transferred to centralized exchanges. Binance alone has transferred 300T. From a normal logic point of view, most of the chips transferred from the chain to the exchange will be sold. In other words, a large number of chips have been changing hands in the past six months.
2 Analysis of special addresses
The common features of holding address 2, holding address 3, and holding address 8 are:
1) The address withdraws money from the exchange every few days 2) There are several withdrawals per day, and the amount of each withdrawal is within a certain range. For example, address 2 withdraws 4 to 11 times a day, and each withdrawal is about 0.1 to 0.5T 3) The exchanges where the withdrawals are made include Binance (mainly), bybit, kucoin, and gate 4) There is no transfer record for holding address 2 and holding address 3
In fact, the holding address 2 can be determined to be the address of OKX from the distribution of ordi tokens. Therefore, it can be determined that addresses 3 and 8 are also the addresses of the exchange. However, this situation is very uncommon. Because it has no transfer-out records, but has been accumulating. And most of the transfer-in addresses are from the comparison exchange. More importantly, these transfers are definitely the behavior of users, because the transfer amount of users is quite different. A retail investor may have 100u, and a large investor may have 1 millionu, and the amount may differ by tens of thousands of times.
3 On-chain fund accumulation addresses
Among the top 20 addresses, most of them are held by individuals, some of which are old individual holding addresses, which are those that were minted or purchased in 2017 and have not been moved for a long time. For example, holding addresses 7, 14, 17, 18, and 19. There are also many new addresses for accumulation, such as holding addresses 10, 11, 12, and 16. In fact, there are also many addresses for increasing holdings among the addresses ranked 21 to 40. From experience, the holding volume of new accumulation addresses that can enter the top 20 is already very large.
Therefore, in general, in the past six months of adjustments, a large number of chips on the chain have been transferred to centralized exchanges, and there has actually been a large amount of turnover. At the same time, large investors can also absorb chips.
4 Specific address analysis
Holding address 1: Binance cold wallet, holding 962T Sats
50T added in the past month
Position address 2: OKX wallet. Inferred from ordi’s position
Holding address 3: It may be the OKX wallet. The behavior pattern on the chain is similar to that of address 2.
This address has a similar pattern to the holding address 2. It withdraws money from the exchange every few days and has never been transferred out. The difference is
1) The average amount of money withdrawn each time is larger, about 0.4~1T 2) The fund collection starts from December 21, 2023 and ends on March 8, 2024
3) The first batch of transfers began on December 18, when OKX launched SATs.
The rest of the analysis is the same as that of position address 2.
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Position address 4: Merlin Chain
Holding address 5: Institutional investor, with a small probability of being a gate cold wallet, new fund accumulation address
It is still a few transactions every few days, each transaction is about tens of B. It is transferred from different wallet addresses, and the holding address 2 is mainly transferred from the currency exchange wallet address. The reason why it is a gate cold wallet is that the only three transfers to this address are all transferred to the gate exchange.
Position address 6: bybit exchange
Position address 7: Old individual large position holder
5T was minted, and another 9T was transferred in September 2023. The transfer may be a purchase, or it may be transferred from other mint wallets belonging to this big account. There has been no transfer since September 2023.
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Holding address 8: Probably the gate’s cold wallet
This address behaves a bit like address 2 and address 3, with sats being transferred in every few days. Most of the transfers come from the Binance exchange address, and a small amount comes from other addresses.
The only transfer out is from the gate wallet.
So it may be an individual large holder of sats, or a cold wallet of the gate exchange.
Holding address 9: Binance hot wallet
Position address 10: New individual large position holder
On August 11 and 14, 24, 5T was transferred from the Binance address, which only has two records.
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Position address 11: New individual large position holder
This big investor suffered a lot. He bought a total of 16.5T in December 2023 and February 2024, and sold 6.5T in May. This part was at least halved. He still had 10T left.
Holding address 12: A new individual holding large account, possibly Sun Ge’s address
The address transferred 11T from Binance on February 24, and then transferred to Huobi Exchange in April and June, each worth several million US dollars. Considering the current poor liquidity of Huobi Exchange, it is hard to imagine that other than Sun Ge, any big investor would transfer to Huobi Exchange for sale.
Position address 13: Bitget Exchange
Position address 14: Old individual large position holder
The chips purchased from the chain between June and August 2023, there was no transfer or sale after August 29
Position address 15: New individual large position holder
I bought a small amount before, and the main position was transferred from Binance Exchange on June 10.
Position address 16: New individual large position holder
I withdrew money from Binance in three transactions on April 14, 15 and May 4, 2024, and the cost was about the same as now.
Position address 17: An old individual holding large position, bought from June to August 2023, the cost is relatively low, and no selling or transfer behavior
Holding address 18: An old individual holding large position, bought in June and August 2023, the cost is relatively low, and no selling or transfer behavior. Except for the purchase time, the other aspects are very similar to address 17, so it is possible that they are controlled by the same person.
Position address 19: Old individual position holder, mint income, not moved
Position address 20: Kucoin Exchange
#SATs
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