📊 After Bitcoin halving, market volatility intensified, and speculative trading trends became obvious! 🚀
🧐 Implied volatility, in simple terms, is the market's prediction of future volatility. Given the price of an option, we can calculate the market's expectation of future volatility of the underlying asset, which is what we call implied volatility (IV).
📊 According to Glassnode data analysis, at the beginning of this year, Bitcoin's 1-week implied volatility (IV) was relatively stable. After a brief surge in the indicator in early January and mid-February, IV remained relatively stable at around 50%.
🌀 As Bitcoin approached halving in April, implied volatility soared, reaching a maximum of more than 80%. Although IV fell briefly after the halving, mid-year implied volatility reappeared, and traders are closely monitoring these factors to predict potential market turmoil.
🔍 Analysts believe that the escalation of market tensions is mainly due to increased uncertainty in the market, including regulatory changes and macroeconomic fluctuations.
🧐By looking at the prices of at-the-money (ATM) IV options in recent times, we can see that the market expects asset prices to fluctuate in the next week. If the weekly option price is high, it means that the market expects large fluctuations in the future; if the weekly option price is low, the volatility is expected to be relatively small. The option prices in the current few weeks are in a range of repeated large fluctuations, indicating that there are many uncontrollable factors.
🔍At the same time, if we compare this year's situation with last year, we will find that the market volatility in 2024 is much greater than last year. The continuation of this high volatility shows that traders are increasingly concerned about short-term market risks, and also shows that the trading environment after the halving has become more speculative.
💬What do you think about the increased volatility of Bitcoin after the halving? Do you think this will affect your trading strategy? Share your views in the comments section!
