Bitcoin’s halving mechanism has been an important event in the cryptocurrency market and one of the key factors driving price increases. Let’s take a look at historical and future halving dates and their impact on the market.
Bitcoin has experienced three halvings since its birth in 2009.
The first halving occurred in November 2012, when the block reward was reduced from 50 BTC to 25 BTC.
The second halving occurred in July 2016, further reducing the block reward to 12.5 BTC.
The third time was in May 2020, when the block reward was halved again to 6.25 BTC.
On April 20, 2024, the fourth recent halving, the block reward will be reduced to 3.125 BTC.
Judging from historical data, the price of Bitcoin has experienced significant increases after each halving. For example, during the 2012-2013 bull market, BTC prices soared from $12.4 to $1,170, an increase of 9,335%. From 2016 to 2017, the price increased from $680 to $19,400, an increase of 2,753%. In 2020-2021, the price increased from $8,590 to $66,708, an increase of 676%.
The main reason why the halving has a boost to Bitcoin prices is because it reduces the supply of new BTC, thereby lowering the inflation rate and reducing potential selling pressure on miners. Existing BTC holders tend to view the halving as good news as it means a reduction in supply, while demand usually remains or increases.
In the future, Bitcoin is expected to experience multiple halvings. At the current rate of block generation, the next halving is expected to occur in the first half of 2028, when block number reaches 1,050,000. Bitcoin is expected to complete its final halving in the 2130s, when the supply of new Bitcoins will be close to zero.
It is worth noting that the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs may change the traditional market cycle pattern. With more traditional investors able to easily purchase BTC, the market could see an explosive rally before the halving or sooner after. This change may break the previous cyclical pattern and make the market reaction more complex and difficult to predict.
Overall, although we cannot accurately predict the exact impact of each halving, it is certain that halving events will still be an important driving force for the Bitcoin market in the future.