CoinShares, a digital asset manager, believes a Kamala Harris presidency might be less favorable for the crypto industry than that of Donald Trump. In a post by a CoinsShares analyst, Max Shannon, Harris’s past affiliations suggest caution on how her administration will deal with the industry.
The post, which analyzed the potential impacts of the leading presidential candidates, comes amidst the recent turnaround in sentiments about Trump’s chances in the election. After enjoying as high as 72% odds of winning the election against President Biden on Polymarket, Trump’s odds have now fallen to 45% on the predictions platform, with Harris at 54%.
Harris’s past affiliations suggest caution
According to the post, predicting Harris’s Presidency’s impact on crypto is difficult, but her past affiliations suggest caution. The post noted that the vice president, being part of the incumbent government, could decide to stick to the same anti-crypto approach.
Skepticism about Harris stems from her unclear stance on the industry. Although pro-crypto candidates within the Democratic Party have said she is open to innovation and supporting businesses. However, the vice president has not publicly indicated her alliances. This means most crypto voters can only judge her in light of this current administration.
CoinShares analyst Mark Shannon wrote:
“Although Harris’s position on crypto is unclear, her past affiliations suggest a cautious approach, potentially making her presidency less favourable to digital assets than a Trump presidency.”
However, CoinShares noted that Harris can choose to adopt a balanced approach to the industry, which will be the best alternative to the Biden administration’s anti-crypto stance.
“She can take that chance now that crypto is an election issue, especially in swing states. If Harris’s administration adopts a crypto-friendly stance, she will have a lot of support even within her party,” CoinShares added.
A group of Democrats in Congress have called for pro-crypto legislation, and several stakeholders in the crypto sector are willing to work with her administration.
The potential impacts of Trump’s Presidency on crypto are mixed
Meanwhile, a Donald Trump administration might not be as good for crypto as many assume. The research highlights several factors that could affect the crypto industry and Bitcoin under a Trump administration.
Trump’s pro-crypto stance makes him the most obvious candidate, especially for single-issue voters. The former president has made several pro-crypto moves, including speaking at the Bitcoin Conference and promising to make Bitcoin a reserve asset. He has also pledged to get rid of anti-crypto regulators.
His choice of Vice President J.D. Vance further highlights how his administration might favor the industry. Vance is a Bitcoin holder with a track record of being pro-crypto. According to media reports, he is already working on a draft proposal tackling how regulators deal with crypto.
However, the decline in his chances on Polymarket suggests that some within the industry doubt that he would fulfill all his promises. His failure to discuss cryptocurrencies when talking to mainstream audiences, such as during the debate against Biden and a recent interview on X with Musk, raises concerns.
Despite the likelihood that he would not fulfill all his promises, CoinShares research noted that Bitcoin might appreciate under Trump due to his economic policies. Trump’s nationalistic stance, which could see him enter trade wars with competing nations such as China and Russia, could affect the use of the dollar as the global reserve currency.
Shannon said:
“Trump’s protectionist measures and inflationary trade policies might weaken geopolitical stability and the US dollar’s status as a reserve currency, indirectly benefiting Bitcoin as a hedge.”
However, the former president could adopt a hawkish fiscal policy to strengthen the dollar if reelected. This will cause Bitcoin prices to decline. Even if that happens, his potential pro-crypto policies could benefit the industry.
