Monex Europe stated that if US retail sales data prompts the market to lower expectations for overly aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the US dollar may rise. Monex analysts stated in a report that data to be released later may show a moderate increase in consumer activity in July, reinforcing information that the US economy is still expanding. "If we are right, the market should continue to agree with our view of the Fed's loose policies, and we expect this trend to be favorable for the (US dollar)." Monex expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, November, and December, slightly lower than the current market expectations.