Author: Frank, PANews
In the past six months, Grayscale has launched another six crypto trust funds. After August 1, SUI saw a surge after Grayscale launched the trust fund, and the view that "Sui is the Solana killer" was very popular.
At present, Grayscale has 21 crypto trusts (except BTC and ETH). How much impact will Grayscale's trust fund have on these crypto assets? PANews has summarized that Grayscale's trust fund has a serious impact on token prices. It has a high boosting effect on leading projects in popular tracks in the market, but has little impact on long-established currencies. At the same time, Grayscale's previous concentrated launch of crypto trusts seemed to coincide with the end of the bull market.
GDLC: Bear Market After Launch
Launched: February 1, 2018 Assets under management: US$480 million
GDLC (Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund) is a basket of digital asset products launched by Grayscale. Its current holdings include BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, AVAX and other tokens. The plan was launched in February 2018, when the market was experiencing a decline from its historical high of 19891 to more than 7,000 US dollars. After Grayscale launched the product, the market entered a long period of consolidation and downward trend. The launch of this product does not seem to have brought much boost to the market.
ETC: Price surges after launch during recovery phase
Launched: April 24, 2017 Assets under management: US$210 million
After Grayscale launched its ETC product, the price of ETC has been rising. However, this rise seems to be earlier than Grayscale's trust product. In April 2017, the entire crypto market was entering a recovery phase. ETC's trust product was one of the first trust products launched by Grayscale.
BCH: Half the price after launch
Launched: March 1, 2018 Assets under management: US$120 million
The Grayscale Trust Fund does not seem to have much impact on the short-term market of BCH. When Grayscale launched the BCH Trust on March 1, 2018, the BCH market was at a high level. After the product was launched, the price fell all the way, falling by about 53% in one month.
LTC: A 70% drop after the bull market turned into a bear market
Launched: March 1, 2018 Assets under management: $118 million
Grayscale also chose to launch the LTC trust product right after the price of LTC had soared, but the trust did not have much impact on the LTC market. On March 1, 2018, LTC briefly rebounded by about 7%, and then began to fall a few days later. It fell from $200 to $72.
SOL: Launched after the all-time high
Launch date: November 18, 2021 Assets under management: US$69.87 million
When Grayscale was launched, SOL had just passed the previous high of $259 and began to decline. After Grayscale launched the trust product, the market rebounded briefly, but then the market fell all the way and entered a long bear market.
Zcash: All-time highs after launch
Launched: October 24, 2017 Assets under management: $16.26 million
Since the news of its establishment was released, the highest increase in four days has reached 29.64%. After Grayscale launched the Zcash Trust, the market just entered the second half of the bull market, and the price soared all the way. Bitcoin rose to $19,891, and Zcash also rose all the way, creating a historical high of $799.
XLM: From bull to bear, falling all the way
Launched: December 6, 2018 Assets under management: USD 9.4 million
After the launch, the market performed poorly and the price of XLM was on a downward trend. The market reached its lowest point on December 16, and the price of Bitcoin fell to $3,215, and then began to rebound to nearly $14,000. However, the price trend of XLM continued to fall, and was not greatly stimulated by the launch of Grayscale's trust.
LINK: 124% increase
Launch date: February 26, 2021 Assets under management: US$9.39 million
As a trust product launched at the same time as MANA, LINK's market performance is not as good as MANA. However, in the two and a half months after the launch of the trust, it also saw a 124% increase, outperforming other mainstream tokens in the same period.
MANA: Up 543% in January
Launch date: February 26, 2021 Assets under management: US$7.64 million
MANA has seen a significant increase after Grayscale launched its trust product. On February 26, 2021, Grayscale launched the MANA trust, and in the following month, MANA rose by 543%. It became the most eye-catching investment target in the market at the time. However, at the beginning of 2021, the concept of the metaverse was hot, and MANA was also the only metaverse product launched by Grayscale as a trust. Currently, Grayscale's trust management assets still account for 1.45% of MANA's total market value.
LPT: skyrocketed nearly 10 times after launch
Launch date: March 10, 2021 Assets under management: USD 6.9 million
Grayscale Trust has a significant effect on the market promotion of LPT. As a token variety that has not been launched for a long time, LPT has not been launched on exchanges such as Binance and OKX in March 2021. After Grayscale launched LPT Trust on March 10, the price of LPT tokens has skyrocketed, from US$4.8 to US$40. At the same time, the market was in a high-level oscillation stage, while LPT had an independent market trend.
FIL: tripled to a record high
Launch date: March 15, 2021 Assets under management: USD 5.32 million
Grayscale's market boosting effect on FIL is relatively significant. After Grayscale launched the FIL trust product on March 15, 2021, the price of FIL rose sharply by 19% the next day, and even rose by 39% on March 17, and It reached an all-time high of $237 on April 1. However, the market was also in a bullish mood during the same period, with Bitcoin hitting $60,000 for the first time. In addition, FIL's community promotion was also in full swing at that time. Grayscale's trust products may have more of a strong endorsement to stimulate the market.
ZEN: Bear market entry all the way down
Launched: August 6, 2018 Assets under management: USD 4.9 million
When Grayscale launched the ZEN Trust, the market was in a period of volatile decline, so the trust product did not have much impact on the ZEN market. After the ZEN product was launched, the price of ZEN continued to fall from $21 to around $4. However, this decline was also formed in line with the trend of the market. Grayscale's ZEN Trust currently accounts for 3.86% of the total market value of ZEN.
BAT: Maximum 273%
Launched: March 1, 2018 Assets under management: US$120 million
On the day that Grayscale BAT Trust was launched, BAT experienced a relatively violent shock, with an amplitude of 26% and a fixed increase of 9.19%. However, BAT then ushered in a wave of strong growth, with the highest increase in 42 days reaching 273%, creating the second highest point of 1.54 so far. However, the overall market was in a frenzy at the time, and it was difficult to judge how much Grayscale's boost contributed to BAT's increase.
DEFG: A short-term rebound
Launch date: July 14, 2021 Assets under management: USD 3.34 million
DEFG is a basket of trust funds launched by Grayscale specifically for the DeFi market. Its current holdings include five tokens: UNI, MKR, AACE, LDO, and SNX. Among them, UNI has the highest holding ratio, accounting for 50%. The product was established on July 14, 2021, just before the market rebounded after falling from a high level. Therefore, after the launch of DEFG, the related DeFi tokens have ushered in a short-term rebound, but the main momentum of these rebounds may still come from the overall market rather than Grayscale's boost.
Grayscale Smart Contract Platform Ex-Ethereum Fund: A rebound in the volatile market
Launch date: March 16, 2022 Assets under management: US$3.14 million
Grayscale Smart Contract Platform Ex-Ethereum Fund only invests in the native tokens of emerging smart contract platforms. Its current holdings include SOL, ADA, AVAX, and DOT, of which SOL accounts for 71.54%. Judging from the launch time, March 2022 is the first consolidation phase after the market fell, and the market is in a period of volatility. After Grayscale launched the trust at this time, the market ushered in a one-month rebound.
STX: A short-term rebound after a long decline
Launch date: May 22, 2024 Assets under management: USD 2.21 million
The price trend of STX has been mainly downward in the past six months. Even after Grayscale launched the corresponding crypto trust, it only saw a brief rebound, and the price continued to fall.
NEAR: The market does not seem to react to Grayscale’s trust
Launch date: May 22, 2024 Assets under management: US$1.96 million
Grayscale launched trust products for NEAR and STX during the same period, but the crypto market seems to have lost its enthusiasm for this. After the launch, the price of NEAR briefly rebounded by 11% and then began to decline.
TAO: The market is not buying it
Launch date: June 10, 2024 Assets under management: USD 1.5 million
TAO is one of Grayscale's latest crypto trusts, but the market does not seem to have reacted much to TAO. The overall trend remains in its original direction.
Grayscale Decentralized AI Fund: Riding on the AI boom
Launch date: July 2, 2024 Assets under management: US$1.09 million
Grayscale Decentralized AI Fund is Grayscale's first trust fund that invests only in native tokens of decentralized artificial intelligence protocols. Currently, it holds five tokens, including FIL, NEAR, RNDR, LPT, and TAO. Among them, FIL accounts for the highest proportion of 33%, and NEAR 30%. The product was launched on July 2, 2024. After the launch of the product, tokens such as FIL and NEAR all ushered in a wave of bottoming out and rebounding. FIL rebounded 47%, NEAR rebounded 61%, and LPT rebounded 55% in this wave of market.
SUI: Multiple positive factors stimulate short-term surge
Launch date: August 1, 2024 Assets under management: US$630,000
SUI's price trend rebounded strongly in August. After Grayscale announced the launch of the trust product, it rose by more than 141% in one week. However, there are many reasons why the market is optimistic about SUI as a whole. Grayscale's trust is just one of them and it is difficult to consider it as the main reason. (Related reading: SUI rose 141% in one week and was called the "Solana killer". Is the bullishness tenable?)
MKR: A short-term rebound
Launch date: August 8, 2024 Assets under management: US$250,000
After the launch of MakerDAO's trust product, the market rebounded from its low point, and MKR also saw a 14% increase on the same day. However, it does not seem to have broken out of its independent trend.
Grayscale Trust is always launched at the “tail end of the ox”?
Grayscale's biggest impact on the crypto space was during the bull market between 2020 and 2021, when Grayscale significantly increased the size of Bitcoin Trust's assets and introduced a large number of institutional investors to the crypto space. Other tokens performed differently when Grayscale launched its trust products, such as FIL, MANA, and other star tokens of the year, which were also the leading projects in various tracks, and saw the most significant price increases after Grayscale launched its trust products. However, for tokens with larger market capitalizations and longer launch times, such as LTC, ETC, BCH, and other old tokens, it did not have much impact.
In addition, Grayscale launched crypto trust products in 2018, 2021, and 2024. Compared with the overall market, Grayscale previously launched crypto trusts in stages close to the peak of the bull market or in the second half of the bull market. In 2018, it was concentrated from February to August, when the market had just turned from bull to bear and experienced a sharp decline. In 2021, it was concentrated from February to July, when the market experienced a high-level shock and decline, but it began to rise again in August to create a new high. However, the reason for this phenomenon does not seem to be because Grayscale misjudged the market, but more likely because Grayscale needs to confirm the market popularity and maturity of a token before launching related trust products, so the launch time coincides with the end of the bull market.
May to August 2024 is the period when Grayscale will launch a concentrated crypto trust. It is unknown whether this wave of Grayscale crypto trusts can break the previous "bull tail" cycle.
