Bitcoin’s bull run is far from over, and the numbers don’t lie. We’re already 624 days into this rally, and while the gains so far are nothing to scoff at, they’re nothing compared to what we’ve seen in the past.
The previous bull cycle from 2019 to 2022 saw Bitcoin explode to a 20x trough-to-peak increase. This time, we’ve only hit 3.5x, which means there’s still plenty of room for BTC to keep climbing.
Bybit and BlockScholes have been digging into the data, and they’re saying we might have another 350 days of this bull run left. That’s nearly a full year more of Bitcoin potentially smashing through all-time highs.
Bitcoin’s unique market behavior
The current bull market is doing something different this time around. Typically, when Bitcoin goes up, we see Ethereum and other altcoins riding its coattails. But not this time.
BTC’s price has been inching up without dragging the altcoin market with it. Instead, Ethereum and the rest have been pretty flat, and Bitcoin itself hasn’t hit the kind of successive new highs we’d usually expect.
This isn’t how it usually goes down. In previous bull markets, Bitcoin’s peaks were always accompanied by a surge in altcoins, with the whole market going crazy before everything crashed back down.
The fact that we’re not seeing this kind of behavior could mean that this bull run hasn’t hit its true peak yet.
Bitcoin’s consolidation over the last few months, where it’s been trading in a tight range instead of shooting up, means that the market is building up steam.
BlockScholes points out that Bitcoin’s correlation with some macroeconomic factors is also off this time. Historically, BTC has thrived when the U.S. dollar is weak and when monetary policy is loose.
But right now, neither of those conditions is in play, yet Bitcoin is still rallying. The old rules just don’t seem to apply anymore.
Institutional demand drives the market
Another twist in this bull market is the role of institutional demand. Until March this year, spot ETFs were seeing a steady increase in BTC holdings.
Institutional investors were piling in, and Bitcoin’s price was following suit, reaching a new all-time high early in the year.
But something changed after mid-March. The inflow of capital into these ETFs suddenly dried up, and with it, price growth stalled. Clearly, the wave of new institutional money might have hit a temporary ceiling.
The lack of fresh demand from these big players has had a noticeable impact on the market, especially around the time of Bitcoin’s halving event on April 20, 2024.
The halving, which typically drives Bitcoin’s price higher thanks to reduced supply, didn’t have the explosive effect many had hoped for. Instead, the price action has been more subdued, reflecting the pause in institutional buying.
But here’s what Bybit and BlockScholes believe: the bull run isn’t necessarily over just because institutional demand has slowed down. Bitcoin has a history of performing well after its halving events, and this time is no different regardless.
Sentiment doesn’t tell the whole story
Right now, the mood in the market is a bit gloomy. Sentiment indicators show that traders are feeling pretty bearish, with embedded volatility in derivatives markets hinting at caution.
But history tells us that low sentiment doesn’t always mean the end of a bull run. Take the 2021 cycle, for example. Bitcoin’s hash power took a massive hit, sentiment tanked, and everyone thought the bull run was over.
But instead of crashing, the market bounced back stronger, hitting new highs before finally topping out. This could be what we’re seeing now—another dip in sentiment that doesn’t necessarily signal the end of the rally.
BlockScholes’ data suggests that the current downbeat mood might just be a temporary blip. The market has been resilient before, and it could very well push through this rough patch to continue its upward trend.
