Bitcoin — D-Day Today?
Bitcoin has been trying to move into the upper half of its trend channel for almost a week—so far, unsuccessfully. On the contrary, Bitcoin broke out of a bearish wedge to the bottom and faced the risk of further downside pressure—however, this did not happen either.
Currently, the middle band acts like a strong magnet, pulling the price but not letting it pass.
Nevertheless, today might be the day when we will see a decision for the next short-term direction: A break through the middle band and move toward the upper band and a new ATH — or another re-test of the lower band.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is set to be released today. Historically, CPI data has created immense volatility and set the tone for the following weeks. This time, it might have an even higher impact.
Here are the most important aspects:
The CPI report is scheduled for release on Wednesday, August 14, at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Analysts generally expect the CPI to increase by 0.2% in July, following a 0.1% decline in June. On a year-over-year basis, the CPI is anticipated to rise by 3%, consistent with June's increase.
In other words, the July CPI report is expected to show that inflation is continuing to slow down, which supports the anticipated rate cuts in September, especially since the Fed is also paying close attention to rising unemployment rates, not just inflation.
As a result, if the numbers come out as expected or even lower, the market could interpret it as the final confirmation for upcoming rate cuts and react positively. However, if the numbers are higher than expected, it could lead to a different market reaction.
As always, I would strongly advise against trading on days like today, where high volatility and unpredictable movements are expected. It's important to exercise caution and consider the potential risks.
