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Weekly Review
This week, from August 5 to August 12, the highest price of Sugar Orange was around $62,745 and the lowest price was close to $49,000, with a fluctuation range of about 28%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chip transactions around 61,000, which will have certain support or pressure.
analyze:
59000-63000: about 1.3 million pieces;
64000-68000: about 1.23 million pieces;
The probability of not falling below 54,000-57,000 in the short term is 70%;
The probability that it will not rise below 64,000-67,000 in the short term is 74%.
Important news
Economic News
QCP Capital reports that despite the incredible market turmoil on Monday, assets have rebounded sharply, and traditional financial markets have felt the normalization of cryptocurrencies for the first time. It is recommended to pay attention to the trends of Nasdaq, Nikkei and USD/JPY, as cross-asset correlations remain high in the short term;
Tom Lee of Fundstrat reports that after VI experiences such a rapid decline, U.S. stocks tend to rise significantly in the coming period.
VIX closed down more than 10 points yesterday. The previous three times were in 2010, 2011 and March 2020. One year later, the S&P 500 index rose by an average of 37%.
JPMorgan believes that three-quarters of global carry trades have been closed.
Usage of the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase facility (PPR) fell below $300 billion to $292 billion for the first time since mid-2021.
S&P expects that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, starting a new round of easing cycle, with a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points this year and another 100 basis points next year, which will help the Federal Reserve achieve a soft landing.
Analyst Mike Dolan believes that the stock market sell-off this time is because traders overestimated the possibility of recession and overreacted, and the interest rate market may not even price in a recession at all. The Federal Reserve only needs to loosen the tightening "brake" to keep the market expanding.
Encrypted ecological news
A New York court has given final approval for defunct cryptocurrency exchange FTX and Alameda Research to repay $12.7 billion to FTX creditors as part of a settlement with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Australia's Monochrome Spot BTC ETF (IBTC) currently holds 110 BTC.
According to HODL15Capital data, as of August 7, the Hong Kong BTC spot ETF held a total of 4,379 BTC, equivalent to approximately US$278 million.
Cointelegraph reported that Morgan Stanley, a major US asset management company, authorized its 15,000 financial advisors to recommend BTC spot ETFs to clients starting August 7.
Confirming a previous CNBC report, the company plans to recommend a BTC ETF starting August 7. Winning the approval of Morgan Stanley, the largest among major wealth management firms, is a milestone in the cryptocurrency space.
JPMorgan analysts said: The large-scale liquidations from the MtGox and Genesis bankruptcies may be in the past, and cash payments from the FTX bankruptcy later this year may stimulate demand in the cryptocurrency market.
This round of BTC's sharp decline was not caused by specific problems with cryptocurrencies, but by the pullback of traditional risky assets such as U.S. stocks. Institutional investors helped support BTC's rebound, but retail investors also contributed to BTC's decline.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
US purchasing power
Short-term investor cost line
The whale that never flows
(The picture below shows the purchasing power of the US market)
After a period of fluctuation, the purchasing power of the US market has gradually recovered, and the market is slowly warming up, although not as strong as before.
(The figure below shows the cost line for short-term investors)
The latest short-term cost line has reached around 64,500, so the pressure that the market may face in its future recovery may also be around 64,500.
Because the market faces the anchoring effect of short-term participants, they may generate some selling pressure when they try to recover their investments.
(Picture below: The giant whale that never flows)
The mysterious whale groups that have never moved are increasing their purchases, and the market still has a lot of support, which is constantly pushing up market pricing.
Mid-term exploration
Supply of short-term and long-term participants
USDC Exchange Net Position
Liquidity Supply
Whale comprehensive scoring model
Positive sentiment on the Internet
BTC exchange trend net position
(The figure below shows the supply of short-term and long-term participants)
By time, the number of long-term and short-term participants in the current market is increasing and decreasing respectively.
Long-term participants are supporting the market, but there is a lack of overall short-term participation.
It may manifest itself as a shortage of liquidity, and the market may be easily affected by large orders.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDC exchanges)
USDC's purchasing power has recovered to the level before the decline and is currently stagnant.
The pace of the market may slow down.
(Figure below shows liquidity supply)
After a certain increase in liquidity supply, the pace has slowed down again. It is possible that participants in the market are currently relatively cautious about their expectations for the market.
However, when the market falls, they will show interest. This situation is more like they are more willing to buy chips in the market when the market is falling on the left side.
(The following figure shows the comprehensive scoring model of the giant whale)
The holding status of whales is divided into 5 levels.
The whale’s score has dropped from Very High and is currently hovering between High and Medium.
The sentiment of the whales has declined, and at the same time, the accumulation has slowed down.
(Figure below: Network sentiment positivity)
The current online sentiment has shown signs of a slowdown and decline, and there may be signs of sentiment recovery in the market (compared to the previous continuous decline).
If you think in terms of a right-side entry, the current uptick in sentiment may not be enough to suggest that this is a good entry point.
(Figure below shows the trend of BTC exchange net positions)
BTC may gradually be freed from the "stress state" and the balance within the exchange is gradually decreasing.
It is possible that the current accumulation state will gradually reduce the decline in BTC pricing.
Short-term observation
Derivatives Risk Factor
Option intention transaction ratio
Derivatives Trading Volume
Option Implied Volatility
Profit and loss transfer
New addresses and active addresses
Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange
Net position of the Auntie Exchange
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net positions
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: The risk factor is close to the red zone, and the derivatives risk is increasing.
(The figure below shows the risk factor of derivatives)
The market will be led by BTC in the next period of time, so this week's observation will turn to BTC's risk factor. After the market's rapid correction last week, with the current small rebound in the market, the risk factor is approaching the red zone again. Combined with other indicators, the market may still tend to fluctuate or slightly correct.
(The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio)
Options volume is up heavily, with the put option ratio in the middle.
(Figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
Derivatives trading volumes fell back to low levels after the market stabilized.
(The figure below shows the implied volatility of options)
Implied volatility has not changed much at the moment.
Emotional state rating: Neutral
(The following figure shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
With the end of the correction, panic sentiment (orange line) has continued to decline, but positive sentiment (blue line) has not continued to increase with the price rebound, so overall market sentiment has turned from "negative and bearish" last week to "neutral".
Whether the market can rebound higher next still needs further observation to see whether positive sentiment picks up. If not, it will tend to fluctuate.
(Figure below shows newly added addresses and active addresses)
New and active addresses are at low levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC inflows accumulate, ETH has moderate outflows.
(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
Although there is a small outflow of BTC at present, the large amount of chips that previously flowed into the exchange have not yet been fully digested.
(The following figure shows the net position of E-Tai Exchange)
ETH exchange net positions are in a medium outflow state.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
There is no high-weight selling pressure at present.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has recovered slightly, and stablecoin purchasing power has recovered significantly.
(Figure below shows the global purchasing power status)
Purchasing power in the Americas has shifted from being lost to recovering slightly, but the recovery is currently weak.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDC exchanges)
USDC exchange net positions have rebounded significantly.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 54,000; there is a willingness to sell at 64,000.
(The following figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)
There is a willingness to buy at prices around 52,000 and 54,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 65,000 and 68,000.
(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 54,000 to 56,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 64,000 to 66,000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 67,000.
This week’s summary:
Summary of news:
Judging from the recent negative events: US recession speculation, Mtgox, Genesis compensation sales, German and US sales, Japanese interest rate hikes and US stock sell-offs, they are now slowly passing.
Now, considering only the Fed’s rate hike/rate cut cycle, there is a high probability that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. After the rate cut, the monetary policy will be loose and flooded with money, which will be beneficial to the market. The correction may end or the market may have reached the bottom.
The negative news that needs to be paid attention to in the short and medium term is that "the New York court finally approved the bankrupt cryptocurrency trading platform FTX to pay $12.7 billion to creditors, which was previously reported by the media as a cash payment.
In general, since the sharp interest rate hike in 2022, the U.S. stock market has repeatedly threatened the Federal Reserve, including the bankruptcy of community banks in early 2023 and the
The U.S. stock market waterfall in September, and then waterfall again in August 2024.
This is not new. During this period, the Federal Reserve has stopped raising interest rates and reduced the scale of balance sheet reduction.
The Nasdaq index also quietly rose from 10,000 points to around 16,000 points, and cryptocurrencies fluctuated violently.
The volatility of cryptocurrencies expands every time there is a pullback, and it will also expand every time there is an increase, waiting for the Fed's monetary easing cycle to arrive.
On-chain long-term insights:
US buying power is picking up, although not strongly;
The cost for short-term investors is now around 64,500. Pay attention to the selling effect of the pressure around this area;
The mysterious whales that had never moved began to increase their purchases and continued to support the market.
Market setting:
Gradually warming up.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
Long-term participants are increasing, while short-term participants are decreasing;
USDC’s purchasing power has recovered to pre-fall levels and is currently slowing down slightly;
The supply of liquidity slowed down;
The accumulation status of the giant whale is reduced;
There are signs of emotional repair among the participants in the field;
The pressure in the field is gradually easing.
Market setting:
Slowdown
The current pressure is gradually easing, and at the same time, the pace of participants in the field will slow down.
On-chain short-term observations:
The risk factor is close to the red area and the risk of derivatives increases.
The number of newly added active addresses is relatively low.
Market sentiment status rating: Neutral.
The overall net position of the exchange shows an accumulation of BTC inflows and a moderate outflow of ETH.
Global purchasing power has recovered slightly, and stablecoin purchasing power has recovered significantly.
Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 54,000 and a willingness to sell at 64,000.
The probability that it will not fall below 54,000-57,000 in the short term is 70%; the probability that it will not rise below 64,000-67,000 in the short term is 74%.
Market setting:
The overall market sentiment is currently neutral. After the sharp correction last week, the market sentiment has eased, and the purchasing power has recovered slightly overall. This week, it is expected that if the market purchasing power and positive sentiment have not recovered significantly, and considering the potential off-market factors (jump wallet or other wallet changes), the market may have a limited rebound and be more inclined to range fluctuations.
Risk Warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
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