Original author: Mary Liu
Reprinted by: Alvis, Mars Finance
On Thursday, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the number of first-time unemployment claims in the week ending August 3 was 233,000, lower than 250,000 in the previous week and lower than the 240,000 expected by economists, reducing concerns about an impending recession in the United States. Investor sentiment improved and financial markets turned to recovery across the board on Thursday.
According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 43.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points has dropped to 56.55%.
At the close of the day, the S&P, Dow Jones and Nasdaq all rose, up 2.30%, 1.76% and 2.87% respectively, with the S&P 500 posting its biggest one-day gain since November 2022.
According to Bitpush data, Bitcoin rebounded from a low of around $54,700 in the early morning, with bulls moving all the way above $59,000, and breaking through the support levels of $60,000 and $62,000 in the late trading. As of press time, BTC was trading at $62,414, with a 24-hour increase of nearly 13%.
The altcoin market was up across the board, with only two coins in the top 200 by market cap seeing losses.
Mog Coin (MOG) led the gains, up 27.4%, Sui (SUI) rose 23.6%, and Ponke (PONKE) rose 20.4%. Aave (AAVE) price fell 2.1%, and MANTRA (OM) fell 0.9%.
The current overall market value of cryptocurrencies is $2.09 trillion, and Bitcoin’s market share is 56.4%.
"Bitcoin is experiencing some volatility as it begins to regain momentum. We have finally seen a decisive breakout above the key resistance level of $58,000, with the price now eyeing the next targets of $60,250 and $63,000. Funding rates have stabilized across the board, and as the rally is primarily spot-driven, signs are bullish," said analysts at Secure Digital Markets.
Multiple positive news boosted market sentiment
On Thursday, a U.S. judge approved a consent order requiring FTX and its sister trading firm Alameda Research to pay $12.7 billion to creditors, ending a 20-month lawsuit. Many predict that as former FTX users reinvest their funds in digital assets, some of the funds will flow back into the cryptocurrency market, greatly improving market liquidity and depth.
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a bill legalizing cryptocurrency mining in the country. Ki Young Ju, CEO of cryptocurrency analysis firm CryptoQuant, said: "Russia seems to be taking action to keep up with the United States. Bitcoin FOMO (fear of missing out) is heating up at the national level, and their participation will increase the hash rate, strengthen the network foundation, and diversify miners."
Ripple's multi-year legal dispute with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) also reached a phased result. A federal judge fined Ripple $125 million and ruled that its retail sales through exchanges did not violate any laws. After the news came out, XRP soared from $0.50 to $0.64 (up 28%), with trading volume reaching $4.2 billion (1.2 billion on Tuesday), and open interest jumped by $200 million.
Cautious optimism in the short term
Despite these catalysts, JPMorgan remains cautious about the future development of the cryptocurrency market, and analysts believe that these catalysts may have already been reflected in the price. The bank said that because the price of Bitcoin is still too high relative to its production cost and gold, the average production cost of Bitcoin mining is about $49,000. Any price movement below this level will put pressure on miners, further depressing BTC prices.
Market analyst Roman said that Bitcoin’s recovery is currently progressing well, but he “still expects Bitcoin to retest $60,000 and then fall to lower levels before we attempt a potential reversal.”
The chart provided by Roman shows that the price of Bitcoin will first climb to $60,000 and then gradually fall to the support level of $54,000: "The price action also shows bearishness (declining volume + rising price), so I expect the price to fall once the resistance level is reached."
Well-known trader Peter Brandt tweeted on Aug. 8 that he sees a 50% chance that Bitcoin will fall below $40,000 before its next rally.
