On August 7, the U.S. Treasury Department announced the issuance of $58 billion in 3-year Treasury bonds, with a winning yield of 3.810%, lower than the pre-issuance trading level (3.812%). Except for the two-year Treasury bond, the benchmark yield rose slightly to an intraday high. The yield is close to ending the inversion, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has erased the decline since the release of non-farm payrolls data last Friday, and is now reported at 3.908%.
On the other hand, the Bank of Japan turned dovish again, with Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida saying that it would not raise interest rates when the market is unstable. Some factors have made the central bank more cautious about raising interest rates, and the yen has come under pressure to fall.
Source: Investing U.S. 10-year Treasury yield; USD/JPY exchange rate
In terms of digital currency, Ripple and the SEC reached a settlement, and the fine was significantly reduced from the $2 billion originally proposed by the SEC to $1.25 billion. After the announcement, market confidence was boosted, XRP transaction volume increased by 254% to $5.3 billion, and the price rose by 20%.
As for BTC, after the price rebounded from 56,000 to 57,000 the day before yesterday, the convergent actual volatility caused IV to briefly show a steep bear trend, but the price did not last long at the high point. After 10 o'clock in the evening, a new round of decline began and was supported near 54,800. After the start of the Asian session, it rose again to regain all lost ground. The intraday volatility expanded significantly, and the implied volatility rose overall.
Source: TradingView
From the details, the rise of BTC’s IV in recent days needs more attention. The uncertainty brought by the US presidential election and the subsequent Fed rate hike route are factors that increase market bets. Compared with the trend of ETH, this change is obvious. Yesterday’s volatility caused ETH IV to flatten significantly. The front end of 1w-1m rose by about 4.5%, and the far end, such as December, only moved by 0.94% (compared to BTC, which moved by 3.07%). On the other hand, the decline in the price of the currency has caused an increase in the demand for put options, and the Vol Skew of the two currencies has fallen across the board.
Source: Deribit (as of 8 AUG 16: 00 UTC+ 8)
Source: SignalPlus
Source: SignalPlus, Vol Skew fell across the board
Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of ETH transactions
Data Source: Deribit, BTC transaction overall distribution
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
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